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The 2024 Presidential Candidate Survey Prabowo Subianto’s electability clearly superior


The ten political parties with the highest electability included PDIP (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle) with 20.9%, Gerindra with 16.5%, Golkar with 11.4%, Democratic Party with 8.3%, Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) with 7.7%, National Awakening Party (PKB) 7.1%, National Democratic Party (NasDem) 5.5%, National Mandate Party (PAN) 2.6%, Indonesian Unity Party (Perindo) 2.2% and United Development Party (PPP) with 2.1%. 

“PDIP could win the election with 20.9%. However, Gerindra Party is narrowing the gap, at 16.5%,” said Alfin. “While Gerindra’s electability has grown 4% since the 2019 election, PDIP has tended to stagnate, at roughly 20%,” he explained. In the survey, IPS also found that new political parties and non-parliamentary parties would find it difficult to secure any wins. Perindo is the only political entity of this group predicted to pass the parliamentary threshold. 

IPS conducted the survey from March 8 to 18, 2022, in 34 provinces across Indonesia. The samples derived from 1220 respondents, obtained through a multistage random sampling technique. It had an approximately 2.8% margin of error and a 95% confidence level. Data was collected through face-to-face interviews, with a questionnaire guiding trained personnel. (des)


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