BMKG Forecast: Dry season peak in August 2020

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BMKG requests that Regional Governments and citizens in general take anticipative steps properly in order to be ready for the 2020 dry season. (Photo: Prive. Doc)

IO – The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi Geofisika – “BMKG”) released their prediction that the 2020 dry season will last from June to September, peaking in in August. Therefore, BMKG asks that Regional Governments and citizens take anticipative steps properly. 

In her statement, Head of BMKG Dwikorita Karnawati suggests that Regional Governments should optimize rainwater storage during the current rainy season. Everyone should harvest rainwater and fill in artificial lakes, dams, reservoirs, retention ponds, and other water storages. The 2020 dry season is generally predicted to be wetter than the 2019 one. However, we need to watch over the 30% seasonal zones that are predicted to suffer a drier season than usual. 

Dwikorita stated that the dry season is strongly related to the transition from a Westerly wind (Asiatic monsoon) to an Easterly wind (Australian monsoon), which is predicted to start from the Nusa Tenggara region in April 2020, moving to Bali and Java. The wind then shifts towards Kalimantan and Sulawesi in May 2020, with the Australian monsoon completely dominating Indonesia in June to August 2020. “Of the total 342 seasonal zones in Indonesia, we calculate that 17.0% started to experience the dry season in April 2020, i.e. a small part of Nusa Tenggara, followed by Bali and Java. 38.3% of our territory will enter the dry season in May 2020, i.e. parts of Bali, Java, Sumatra, and Sulawesi. The remaining 27.5% of regions, comprising Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua will enter the dry season in June 2020,” she said. 

BMKG data shows that when compared to the 1981-2010 climatological average for the start of the dry season, the 2020 dry season in Indonesia will be delayed in 148 seasonal zones (43.3%), remain normal in 128 seasonal zones (37.4%), and come earlier in 66 seasonal zones (19.3%). 

When compared with climatological average accumulated rainfall in the dry season in 1981-2010, the overall volume of the 2020 dry season is expected to remain normal in 197 seasonal zones (57.65%). However, 103 seasonal zones (30.1%) will suffer lower than normal rainfall or a drier dry season than the above climatological average, while 42 seasonal zones (12.3%) will have higher than normal rainfall rate (a wetter dry season). Please beware and take appropriate measures. 

“We (BMKG) predict that 9.9% of seasonal zones will enter a peak dry season in July, with most (64.9%) zones entering the peak in August and only about 18.7% in September,” Dwikorita said. 

Recommendations 

To prepare for the 2020 dry season, BMKG requests people in regions expecting an early dry season – parts of Bali and Nusa Tenggara, the northern part of West Java, and the northern and central parts of Central Java – to be alert. “Increased awareness and early anticipation is also required for areas expected to suffer from a drier than normal dry season, i.e., parts of Aceh, parts of the East Coast of North Sumatra, parts of Riau, the eastern part of Lampung, the southern part of Banten, parts of West Java, the central and northern parts of Central Java, parts of East Java, the eastern part of Bali, the eastern part of West Nusa Tenggara, small parts of East Nusa Tenggara, the southeast part of East Kalimantan, parts of South Sulawesi, the southern part of Southeast Sulawesi, and the western and southeastern parts of Maluku. People must be extra prepared and anticipative about possible impacts of the dry season, especially in areas vulnerable to disasters of meteorological drought, forest and land fires, and lack of clean water. I repeat that it is essential for everyone to harvest rainwater and optimize its storage during the rainy season, and fill in artificial lakes, dams, reservoirs, retention ponds, and other water storages,” Dwikorita said. (Dan)