Jakarta, IO – Amid a dramatic escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which sparked a war marked by Russia’s “Special Military Action” against Ukraine, dated in western media from February 24, 2022, scholars and expert observers have drawn parallels to the United States’ evolving policy towards Taiwan, aka the “Republic of China”.
A “Ukrainianization” concept suggests that the US intends to attempt to position Taiwan as a strategic countermeasure against China, mirroring the situation in Ukraine. However, a closer examination reveals that while there has been a discernible shift, US policy towards Taiwan remains constrained by its structural limitations and external factors.
The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the US approach to Taiwan becomes evident when observing its multi-faceted manifestations. First, President Biden’s public endorsement of a “military protection theory” is not coincidental; it signifies a more pronounced emphasis on Taiwan’s security. Additionally, within US strategic circles, the “Taiwan protection faction” has gained traction, advocating increased military support to Taiwan. Concurrently, the influence of those advocating for a status quo has waned.
Mainstream media’s emphasis on “democracy” and “defense” has also spurred a more assertive stance on Taiwan, aligning with the “Ukrainianization” narrative. Crucially, the crisis in Ukraine and China’s perceived threat to Taiwan have fostered closer cooperation between the US executive and legislative branches. This heightened collaboration aims to apply successful strategies from the Ukrainian theater to Taiwan, including bolstering policy coordination and military security measures.
While the Russian-Ukrainian war accelerated adjustments in US policy towards Taiwan, inherent limitations persist. Foremost among these is the enduring influence of the “One China” policy, constraining any complete departure from its framework. Furthermore, the intricate interplay of domestic factors hampers policy harmonization.
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Divisions between the US Government Council, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party on core Taiwan issues impede a united approach. Similarly, voices in rational and pragmatic circles express reservations about the full-scale “Ukrainianization” of Taiwan policy. These complexities highlight just how the European conflict’s impact on Taiwan policy is inherently bounded.
In conclusion, the evolving “Ukrainianization” of US policy towards Taiwan is marked by both significant shifts and enduring constraints. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict undoubtedly acted as a catalyst, prompting a reevaluation of strategic approaches. However, the structural limitations inherent in US-Taiwan relations, coupled with the influence of domestic factions, temper the extent of policy adjustment. As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, a nuanced understanding of these dynamics is essential to grasp the intricacies of US-Taiwan relations moving forward.
M. Raihan Ronodipuro is a Master’s Degree student in the School of Public Policy & Management at Tsinghua University, China. Previously, he was awarded the Chinese MOFCOM Scholarship and earned a Master of Law in International Relations from the School of International and Public Affairs at Jilin University in China. He serves as an Associate Researcher in the Department of Politics and Security at the Center for Indonesia-China Studies (CICS). He is presently a member of the International Relations Commission at the Directorate of Research and Studies for the Overseas Indonesian Students’ Association Alliance (OISAA) 2022/2023.