Jakarta, IO – There is an interesting adage to describe elections in Indonesia: “We can know the election results without having to wait for the official KPU [General Elections Commission] decision.” We are of course talking about “quick count” – unofficial results based on statistically-collected sample votes at polling stations. The public always looks forward to this every election, as they can find out who is the victor, just a few hours after polls close.
Quick count has been a fixture in every Indonesian election since the first direct election in 2004. It has aroused public interest and sparked enthusiasm for highly-anticipated minute-by-minute vote counting coverage by national TV stations.
The first institution to pioneer the quick count in Indonesia was the Institute for Research, Education and Information on Economy and Social Affairs (LP3ES). LP3S held a quick count in collaboration with the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), Metro TV, TIFA Foundation and a number of donors.
Because it accurately predicted election outcome more promptly, quick count swiftly rose in popularity and became an inseparable part of elections, at both national and regional levels. In the 2024 presidential election, all eyes were watching to find out whether Prabowo-Gibran could win outright in just one round, in accordance with the hope of the majority of the voting public, because it will lead to substantial state budget savings, reducing tensions among political components and providing certainty to the business community, while allowing the Government to continue working, to realize existing development programs.
Crossing the finish line
Based on quick count results per February 14, at 8pm WIB, 85 percent of sample votes have been tallied. Of the six pollsters, namely, Litbang Kompas, Indikator, LSI Denny JA, Charta Politika, Poltracking and PRC, it is clear that candidate pair No 2, Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka, have a comfortable lead, securing between 57 to 59 percent of the votes. Trailing in the second place is contender No 1, Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar, garnering between 23 to 25 percent, followed by contender No 3 Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD with around 16 percent.
Independent election monitoring platform KawalPemilu also shows Prabowo-Gibran in the lead. As of 8pm WIB, the Prabowo-Gibran gained 52.94 percent of the votes, followed by Anies-Muhaimin with 30.71 percent and Ganjar-Mahfud with 16.35 percent. Prabowo-Gibran is leading in almost all regions, except for Jakarta, Aceh and West Sumatra, which went to Anies-Muhaimin.
Litbang Kompas researcher Debora Laksmi even stated that numbers showing Prabowo-Gibran’s lead will not change much in the future. Litbang Kompas’ results as of 8.20pm WIB, with 85 percent progress, also put Prabowo-Gibran ahead with 58.81 percent, way higher than Anies-Muhaimin (25.12 percent) and Ganjar-Mahfud (16.07 percent).
Debora pointed out that quick count results tend to be stable, meaning it is next to impossible that Prabowo-Gibran’s share of 59.58 percent according to Litbang Kompas will drop below 50 percent.
The quick count results are actually not that surprising. In the latest surveys released before the cooling-off period, Prabowo-Gibran’s electability reached more than 50 percent. A survey conducted by pollster Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) from January 29 to February 5, for example, found Prabowo-Gibran’s electability rate standing at 51.9 percent, while Anies-Muhaimin gained 23.3 percent and Ganjar-Mahfud grabbed 20.3 percent.
Similar to LSI findings, Poltracking’s survey, conducted from January 27 to February 2, 2024, yielded the following results: Prabowo-Gibran 50.9 percent, Anies-Muhaimin 25.1 percent and Ganjar-Mahfud 18.4 percent.
“Compared to our previous survey results, this is the first time a presidential pair touched the 50 percent mark,” said Poltracking Indonesia Executive Director Hanta Yuda on Friday (9/2).
The findings by Indikator also showed a similar trend. In an opinion poll conducted on from January 28 to February 4, Prabowo-Gibran’s electability hit 51.8 percent, against 24.1 percent for Anies-Muhaimin and 19.6 percent for Ganjar-Mahfud.