Be that as it is, observers would do well to note that the powerful military remained neutral during this regime change crisis. It did not interfere like many expected them to do. That is because Pakistan’s fledgling democracy is indeed becoming much more mature than in the years past, though it still has a lot of work to do. Nevertheless, it is impressive that this regime change process has thus far played out independently of the military. This institution is deeply respected by the Pakistanis for keeping their ultra-diverse country together during difficult times and in the face of quite serious regional challenges to its existence. Speculation about its support for one or another side strongly influences popular perceptions.
As it stands, Pakistan remains politically divided due to the unresolved partisan disputes between the ruling party and the opposition. New elections are scheduled to be held within 90 days of the parliament rejecting the opposition’s no-confidence vote on 3 April. The National Assembly was dissolved, with Prime Minister Khan appointed as caretaker until then. He also suggested that some members of the opposition might be investigated for sedition, considering his claims that they conspired with the U.S. to overthrow him as punishment for his independent foreign policy. About that, some words should be said about Pakistan’s international vision under his leadership and why it allegedly upset the U.S.
The newly promulgated National Security Policy from December prohibits participation in bloc politics of the sort that the U.S. was allegedly pressuring Pakistan to practice by demanding that it publicly condemns Russia for its ongoing special military operation in Ukraine and join the West’s anti-Russian sanctions. Furthermore, this policy-making document institutionalized the concept of geo-economics with a particular focus on Central Asia. It specifically declares that “Pakistan’s geo-economic pivot is focused on enhancing trade and economic ties through connectivity that links Central Asia to our warm waters.” Pakistan’s multipolar geo-economic interests are therefore poised to converge with those of Russia.
This isn’t just speculation but a credible prediction predicated upon February 2021’s agreement to build a Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan railway that can informally be called PAKAFUZ after each participating country’s first letters. It represents the de facto northern expansion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of Beijing’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), which will ultimately connect the Russian and Pakistani economies via Central Asia and Afghanistan. It perfectly aligns with Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP)—Moscow’s grand strategy for comprehensive integration of the supercontinent across the 21st century and accelerating multipolarity.