Complex systems are ubiquitous in a variety of contexts, but adaptive complex systems share common traits. Complex adaptive systems consist of a network of agents acting in parallel. Agents, depending on the context, can be nerve cells, individuals, companies, or even countries.
In complex adaptive systems, “each agent finds itself in an environment produced by its interactions with other agents in the system. An agent is constantly acting and reacting to what the other agents are doing.”
As a result, nothing in complex adaptive systems is fixed, and they are highly decentralized. Complex adaptive systems are described as a series of processes that are interconnected with each other.
An agent interacts with its environment and with other agents. It can respond to what is happening around it and can act, to some extent, with a specific purpose. Strategy is the way an agent responds to its environment and achieves its goals.
In short, it can be said that elections are a complex adaptive system. The winning strategy being implemented not only influenced Prabowo-Gibran but also other contenders as well. Their campaign teams will also adapt to the changing situations.
In regard to the survey findings, they must be understood as a reality of the past, and not as data to predict the future, let alone deciding what the future will be like.
Beware of the cherry-picking trap
Survey findings should not be used as predictions for the future, but rather as a tool for evaluation. For example, the survey findings in December 2023 should be used as an evaluation for campaign performance in November. Do not get caught up in overconfidence, or worse, become arrogant and complacent.
In addition, we tend to cherry-pick when analyzing survey results, by only believing those that suit our preference. It is true that there are pollsters who found that Prabowo-Gibran’s electability is already above 50 percent, but there are also results showing that Prabowo-Gibran is not there yet (see Table 2).
What it takes for a single-round victory
There are at least four moves that must be taken to ensure a single-round victory for Prabowo-Gibran.
First, as mentioned earlier, the Prabowo-Gibran campaign must not appear to be arrogant. While some survey results show the pair’s chance to end the race with 50%+1 votes, it is worth remembering that there are many other surveys that show that this ‘magic number’ has yet been reached.
Every member of the campaign team must heed lessons of humility. Use the survey findings as a tool for evaluation and improvement not just for future predictions, but rather should be understood as temporary evaluations. Always keep in mind that survey findings derive from past data, not future outcome.
Additionally, every member of the Prabowo-Gibran campaign should bear in mind that victory is not yet guaranteed. Don’t imagine victory, but always imagine that Prabowo-Gibran could lose. With this perception, every campaign activity must be improved from time to time.
For the first move, it will do the campaign well to heed Sun Tzu’s advice: “All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”