At an elite level, deep political divisions have crippled efforts at legislative compromise, undermined institutional and behavioral norms, and encouraged politicians to pursue their goals outside legitimate institutions.
Political divisions resulting from polarization are widespread, beyond the corridors of power, because it will divide society into two camps, with an ‘us vs. them’ mindset, highly partisan mass media, hate speech on social media and increased political violence.
During the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election, for example, the extremes can be seen from certain mosques which refused to pray for a deceased member who supported a certain candidate. There were also cases of divorce attributed to differing political preferences in the 2019 presidential election.
Therefore, the narrative of a single-round presidential election is actually not only for the sake of political stability, but also to ensure that the situation remains peaceful, to prevent political tensions from escalating into chaos and anarchy.
Reading the political tea leaves
Let’s now analyze whether the Prabowo-Gibran ticket can win outright in just one round. If we look at the electability survey results, this is entirely possible. The latest polls (see Table 1) even indicates that Prabowo-Gibran’s electability has passed the 50 percent threshold.
In addition, Populi Center in its survey of 1,200 respondents, conducted between October 29 and November 5, 2023 found that 63.9 percent favored a single-round election.
Given these results, it is within the realm of possibility that Prabowo-Gibran can cruise to a single-round victory. If this actually happens, it will be a historic win, where a three-horse race is decided in just one round of voting.
General election: Adaptive and complex
“The nature of war as a complex adaptive system”. I am of the view that even though the survey results found that Prabowo-Gibran has passed the 50%+1 mark, we should not be lulled into thinking that Prabowo-Gibran would definitely win in one round.
For those of you who are too fixated on poll numbers, I would like to remind you of the advice from the Prussian war expert Carl von Clausewitz. In his book On War, Clausewitz talks about the ‘fog of war’ which denotes a situation full of uncertainty.
Just like being surrounded by fog, we cannot tell for sure what is in front, next to, or behind us. According to Clausewitz, that is what war is like, there are no definite circumstances. War is not static, but dynamic, full of sudden and unexpected changes in situations.
Brian Cole, explains the fog of war as a complex adaptive system, in his article Clausewitz’s Wondrous Yet Paradoxical Trinity. Complex systems are not only found in war, but also many domains.
In the human body, these systems include the brain, immune system, cells, and even a developing embryo. In human civilization, complex systems include cultural, economic, and social systems, such as political parties and scientific communities.