China’s strategy is a divide and conquer approach – it hopes to isolate nations from their ASEAN partners and coerce them into giving up claims on disputed territory using a mix of economic and military clout.
To counter this, ASEAN nations must work as a united bloc to counter China’s divisive and exploitative strategy. And this means laying aside disputes currently held with each other. For example, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines all lay claim to the Spratly Islands, and Malaysia and Vietnam are in hot contest over oil and gas blocks off the coast of Borneo.
But there are other issues besides territorial claims that threaten regional unity.
Just consider the vexatious claim by the heirs of the Sultanate of Sulu (a group of islands belonging to the Philippines off the coast of eastern Malaysian Borneo) which sued the Malaysian government following Malaysia’s refusal to pay a colonial era annual fee based off a largely discredited 1878 treaty between the Sulu and British colonists.
Shockingly, in 2022, an international arbitration tribunal awarded the heirs $15 billion, a serious blow for Malaysian public finances which created unnecessary and challenging problems for the new President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Although he did not endorse the case, he also would not deny that the Philippines’ longstanding claim to the North Borneo region of Malaysia, now known as Sabah. This had an obvious impact on relations between the Philippines and Malaysia – which only worsened when it was revealed the Spanish arbitrator, Gonzalo Stampa, faces criminal prosecution in his home country due for contempt of court for continuing to pursue the case despite being ordered to stop.
As one leading international lawyer pointed out, the case was premised on flawed readings of colonial history given that the Sulu never really had sovereignty over the region in the first place. Although Malaysia successfully appealed the decision in a Paris court which effectively annulled the $15 billion award earlier this year, the damage was done. Not only have Malaysia and the Sulu claimants in the Philippines endured a lengthy and costly legal battle, cases such as these harm the reputation of international arbitration mechanisms which remain a vitally important tool to peacefully resolve complex and tense disputes between nation states.
With tensions increasing in the South China Sea, ASEAN nations on the frontline of China’s coercive intimidation campaign must put aside petty disputes that threaten to undermine key partnerships. This means considering traditional high-level diplomatic avenues to resolve disputes, and uniting in the face of greater threats such as China’s quest for regional hegemony.
If they don’t move past these disputes, ASEAN nations can look to Taiwan, or even Ukraine, as examples of what happens to isolated nations when they don’t have the support required to stand up to neighbouring aggressors bent on confrontation.
And that is a future – for all our sakes – I hope we can do without.
Jose Chalhoub is a political risks and oil analyst with experience in Venezuela oil industry, focused on intersection of geopolitical risks and oil markets.