Jakarta, IO – NATO recently commenced Air Defender 2023, the largest air force deployment exercise in its history, taking place in Germany, and with the participation of various countries, including the United States. This exercise is taking place amidst escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The conflict took a devastating turn when explosions caused the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam, leading to a severe humanitarian crisis and environmental disaster. In response to these events, some NATO members expressed their intention to provide offensive missiles to Ukraine, with the possibility of allowing Ukraine to target mainland Russia. Additionally, certain Eastern European countries have stated their willingness to deploy troops directly in Ukraine, bypassing NATO channels.
The primary objectives of NATO’s large-scale joint air defense exercise are twofold. Firstly, it aims to appease member states with aggressive inclinations and synchronize the actions of its member countries. Secondly, it seeks to encourage Ukraine to take bold actions against Russia, assuring Ukraine of NATO’s support, while simultaneously cautioning Russia against escalating the conflict to a nuclear war.
Lieutenant General Michael A. Loh of the US Air National Guard previously mentioned that the exercise goes beyond mere deterrence, implying that NATO could become directly involved in the war if unexpected circumstances arise. This involvement could potentially take the form of large-scale air raids and targeted strikes, rather than deploying ground troops.
Surprisingly, Japan, despite not being a NATO member, participated in Air Defender 2023 by sending its Self-Defense Forces. This marks the first time Japan has joined NATO’s air deployment exercises. Japan’s involvement is unexpected, due to its geographical location on the Pacific coast and the constraints imposed by Article 9 of its Constitution, which limits the country’s military activities.
Japan’s decision to participate in the exercise may have several motives. Firstly, Japan seeks to establish closer ties with NATO, potentially to pave the way for NATO’s involvement in the Asia-Pacific region and the establishment of a NATO office in Tokyo. Secondly, Japan likely harbors ulterior motives, including preparations for launching an attack on Russia from the east should it become involved in the war. Moreover, Japan’s participation in the exercise aims to counterbalance the influence of Russia’s ongoing military drills in the Baltic Sea, as well as the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk in the east.
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By dispatching its Self-Defense Forces, Japan aims to enable NATO forces to swiftly deploy to locations as far as the Republic of Korea (ROK) or Japan in a matter of hours, instead of months, in the future. This implies that if NATO were directly engaged in a war with Russia, its allied forces would launch attacks from both the west (Europe) and the east (Northeast Asia), forming a pincer attack.
It is speculated that Japan’s participation in NATO’s air defense exercise is part of its strategy to gain leverage in the dispute over the Southern Kuriles (known as the Northern Territories in Japan). By aligning with NATO in a conflict against Russia, Japan may seek to strengthen its position and potentially secure economic compensation for Ukraine after the Russia-Ukraine conflict concludes. In this scenario, Russia may be pressured to return some disputed territories to Japan and Germany. As a result, countries with historical territorial disputes with Russia are closely observing these developments, hoping to seize an opportunity to advance their own claims.
Raihan Ronodipuro is a Master’s student in School of Public Policy & Management at Tsinghua University, China. Previously, he was awarded the Chinese MOFCOM Scholarship and earned a Master of Law in International Relations from the School of International and Public Affairs at Jilin University in China. He serves as an Associate Researcher in the Department of Politics and Security at the Center for Indonesia-China Studies (CICS). He is presently a member of the International Relations Commission at the Directorate of Research and Studies for the Overseas Indonesian Students’ Association Alliance (OISAA) 2022/2023.