Parameter Politik Indonesia survey: “Prabowo Subianto has top electability”

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Prabowo Subianto, potential presidential candidate with top electability according to Parameter Politik Indonesia. (Photo: Pramitha. Hendra/IO)

IO – A recent survey by Parameter Politik Indonesia (23-28 May 2021) reports that Minister of Defense, Prabowo Subianto, has the highest level of electability if the Presidential Elections were to be performed today. The survey involved 1,200 respondents who were selected randomly and proportionally, according to region. The survey’s margin of error is ± 2.9% with a reliability level of 95%.

Parameter Politik Indonesia’s  Executive Director, Adi Prayitno, stated that Prabowo has top electability, at 18.3%, in a recent simulation containing 15 Presidential Candidates. He is followed by the Governor of Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo (16.5%), and Governor of DKI Jakarta, Anies Baswedan (15.1%). “In terms of Presidential Candidates’ electability, Prabowo, Ganjar Pranowo, and Anies Baswedan are consistently in the top three. The competition between them is fierce, but none of them ever got lower than the top three position,” he said during the Survey’s formal release of results on Saturday (05/06/2021). 

The top three are followed by the General Chairman of Partai Demokrat Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (7%), Governor of West Java Ridwan Kamil (6%), Minister of Social Affairs Tri Rismaharini (5.5%), and Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy Sandiaga Uno (5.4%). Other figures with electability lower than 3% were also mentioned in the survey: Jusuf Kalla, Khofifah Indar Parawansa, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, Gatot Nurmantyo, Puan Maharani, Erick Thohir, Mahfud M. D., and Abdul Somad. 12.3% of respondents said that they “don’t know” or refused to answer. 

Parameter Politik Indonesia performed several surveys that simulate Elections using 15, 10, 5, and 3 names of Presidential Candidates. In the 10-name and 5-name surveys, the names of Prabowo, Ganjar, and Anies are consistently in the top three, respectively. In the 3-name survey, Prabowo’s electability is 24.8%, followed in order by Ganjar (22.1%), and Anies (20.9%), with 32.2% respondents declaring “don’t know” or refused to answer. “When it’s all narrowed into the top three, the electability gap between candidates gets smaller. If you narrow it down further to a headto-head candidacy, the electability barrier will become even thinner,” Adi said. 

Other than the possible Candidates’ electability, the Parameter Politik Indonesia survey shows that Indonesians tend to want Presidential Candidates with an image of “strictness” and “discipline” instead of Presidential Candidates with good performance, recording the above as the most popular reason for respondents when selecting Presidential Candidates at 7.8%. The number two reasons are “close to the people” and “good job performance”, both selected by 5.5% of respondents. Other reasons for election found in the survey: “Friendly and courteous” (3.2%), “dignified” (3%), “intelligent and smart” (2.8%), “able to lead Indonesia into the future” (2.8%), “originates from the military” (2.6%). 

The survey concludes that most of our citizens (36.3% of respondents) elect Presidential Candidates because of psychological reasons (e.g. “strict and disciplined” and “close to the people”, as opposed to rational or logical reasons (e.g. “good job performance” and “highly experienced”), which only 10.5% respondents affirmed. The remaining 3.2% of respondents elect Presidential Candidates based on sociological reasons, such as “pro to the interests of Islam”. “These facts show that building emotional image and closeness, making use of group-base sentiments if possible, is still much more important for Indonesian voters than excellent work program,” said the Parameter Politik Indonesia survey report.