Jakarta, IO – On February 14, 2024, Indonesians will vote for their next President and Vice President. In contrast to the Presidential elections in 2014 and 2019, the 2024 edition will see an interesting three-cornered battle.
The first candidate pair is Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar, supported by the “Coalition of Change”, comprising NasDem, PKS, PKB and the Ummah Party. The second pair is Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD, backed by PDI-P, PPP, Hanura and Perindo. The third contender is the pair of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka, nominated by the Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM) which is made up of Gerindra, Golkar, PAN, Democratic Party, PBB, Garuda, Gelora, Prima and PSI.
The nominees have registered their candidacy with the General Elections Commission (KPU) －AniesMuhaimin and Ganjar-Mahfud on the frst day of the registration period (October 19) while Prabowo-Gibran chose the last day (October 25). The chosen timing allowed PrabowoGibran to steal the spotlight. Moreover, their registration was carried out with fanfare, escorted by KIM party supremos, including eight ministers/deputy ministers of the Onward Indonesia Cabinet: Coordinating Economic Minister and Golkar chairman Airlangga Hartarto, Trade Minister and PAN chairman Zulkifi Hasan, Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia, Communications and Information Minister Budi Arie Setiadi, Deputy Trade Minister Jerry Sambuaga, Deputy SOE Minister Rosan Roeslani, Deputy Manpower Minister Afriansyah Noor and Deputy Agrarian and Spatial Planning Minister Raja Juli Antoni. In military parlance, the appearance of those ministers/deputy ministers is akin to a show of power.
In military studies and international relations, superpowers such as the US, China and Russia often hold grandiose military parades to show off their military posture in terms of personnel and weapons.
The parade appears intended to send a message to the world that they have extraordinary offensive capabilities, a force to be reckoned with. The presence of eight cabinet members also hinted at a political message that Prabowo-Gibran is supported by powerful political elites. We couldn’t help but ask cheekily, was the show of force directed at a particular party?
Of course, the same as previous rounds of the Presidential election, one of the most widely-discussed topics among members of the public is, who will be the winner? Especially since we are going to see a three horse race. US historian Lawrence R. Samuel was once quoted as saying “It is impossible to predict the future, we all know, yet many of us still try to do it in one way or another.”
To predict, or perhaps more accurately to forecast, the results we have to map the political strength of each candidate pair. As Sun Tzu advised, in his famous The Art of War, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.”
Strength mapping
If we talk about political power, we can use the theory of political capital, popularized by French sociologist Pierre Bourdieu. According to him, political capital represents the number of resources that can be used by individuals or groups to obtain or maintain power in the political realm.
This includes elements such as reputation, influence, social relationships, access to information, and political skills derived from one’s position or social structure in society.
According to Bourdieu, there are seven forms of capital that can become political capital, namely, institutional, human resource, social, economic, cultural, symbolic and moral.
To map the political capital needed for a Presidential election, we can narrow it down to four capitals, namely, financial, popularity, political party and electability.
As far as financial capital is concerned, it can be said that the three candidate pairs are quite competitive. Each camp has several well-known entrepreneurs, supported by their business establishments. In the Coalition for Change, of course there is the NasDem chairman Surya Paloh. In 2021, Forbes magazine estimated Surya Paloh’s net worth to be US$440 million (Rp6.9 trillion).