Prabowo-Gibran was only behind in the survey by Charta Politika, where Ganjar-Mahfud led with 36.8 percent, followed closely by Prabowo-Gibran (34.7 percent) and Anies-Muhaimin (24.3 percent).
Many people may cynically scoff at the accuracy of electability polls, arguing that they can be bought and tweaked to favor a certain candidate. However, they underestimate the ability and credibility of pollsters in making political predictions.
In fact, electability surveys succeeded in predicting the winner of the previous elections. In 2019 elections, top survey institutions projected that Joko Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin would win. The following are results of surveys conducted from late March to early April 2019. (FIGURE-1)
Strategic Surprise
By looking at survey data, many parties predicted that Prabowo-Gibran would win the 2024 Presidential election. However, this should not make Prabowo-Gibran camp become overconfident or even complacent.
We can reflect on the lesson from the Pearl Harbour attack on December 7, 1941. There is an interesting supposition that the US actually had prior intelligence about the Japanese navy’s plan to attack the naval base in Hawaii.
In anticipation, the US stationed many warships, fighter planes, personnel, and weapons at Pearl Harbor. However, because it felt they it was more powerful militarily, it underestimated the capabilities of the Japanese forces. Pearl Harbour soon turned into a raging inferno. The US suffered massive losses.
In military studies, what happened to the US is called “strategic surprise”. Unlike “Black Swan”, which is a completely unpredictable event, a strategic surprise is predictable, but still occurs due to lack of preparation.
A strategic surprise has a major impact on military, geopolitical and political strategy. Understanding the importance of managing risk and responding to strategic surprises is key to maintaining stability, security and superiority.
In an effort to deal with strategic uncertainty and surprise, rapid response, the use of advanced technology, strong intelligence, and flexibility in strategic planning are critical elements. The ability to anticipate, respond, and adapt to strategic surprises can be a decisive factor in winning a battle.
Even though Prabowo-Gibran is superior on paper, especially in terms of coalition size and electability, that should not make the campaign team become big-headed. Carl von Clausewitz in his book On War warns of the “fog of war”.
According to Clausewitz, a multitude of factors, variables, weaknesses and strengths in war are constantly changing. They are highly dynamic. This is like walking in the fog, where we cannot know exactly what is in front, behind, and around us.
Similarly, in The Art of War, Sun Tzu describes war as a situation that is constantly changing. Every war is different. This is similar to the thought of famed philosopher Heraclitus, that one cannot step into the same river twice.
Prabowo-Gibran as a duumvirate
To avoid any strategic surprise, Prabowo and Gibran’s respective strengths and advantages must be optimized to the fullest extent. Of the three candidate pairs, Prabowo-Gibran is the most interesting and potential duo. This duet is a combination of military-civilian and old-young generation.
Their candidacy brought to mind the Rengasdengklok incident. After hearing the news of Japan’s surrender on August 15, 1945 via radio, Sjahrir rushed to meet Sukarno and Hatta who had just returned from Dalat, Vietnam. Sjahrir urged Sukarno and Hatta to immediately proclaim the independence of Indonesia.
However, there was disagreement between them. Sukarno and Hatta were still doubtful about the news of Japan’s defeat. They also rejected Sjahrir’s proposal as they waited for the Japanese promise of sovereignty transfer.
In agreement with Sjahrir, a group of young independence activists met on the evening of August 15, 1945 at a house on Pegangsaan Timur Street, Central Jakarta. The youth agreed to kidnap Sukarno and Hatta and hold them in a small town of Rengasdengklok. The plan was carried out at 4 a.m. WIB by Chaerul Saleh, Wikana, dr. Muwardi, Jusuf Kunto, Singgih, dr. Sutjipto and Sukarni.
The rest is history. Had the kidnapping not happened, the independence proclamation might have been delayed for a long time. Prabowo and Gibran should emulate the duumvirate (dwitunggal) style of partnership akin to Soekarno-Hatta. Both have their own charming charisma which enable them to draw public support. Prabowo, for example, could focus on targeting established voters – those who have voted more than once.
Meanwhile, Gibran can focus on targeting young voters who will form the majority of voters in the 2024 Presidential election. Based on KPU data, there will be 113 million young voters, comprising Millennials and Gen Zs, who account for 56.45 percent of voting-eligible population.