In Ganjar’s camp, the appointment of Indika Energy President Director Arsjad Rasjid as the Election Director clearly shows efforts to attract substantial capital networks. This is further supported by the appointment of Recapital Group chairman Rosan Roeslani as Campaign Manager. In the same vein, KIM also clearly seeks to court capital networks.
In terms of popularity, the three candidate pairs are also quite balanced. Since the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election, Anies Baswedan has been the talk of the town. As for Ganjar Pranowo, for at least the last three years, the public has been acquainted to him as the former Central Java governor being groomed by PDI-P as President Jokowi’s successor.
Meanwhile, Prabowo Subianto has clearly gained political fame in the last 15 years. Prabowo has been a Presidential candidate three times in a row since the 2009 elections. He has been, essentially, a household name. Who doesn’t know Prabowo?
The gap is only visible in the last two capitals. Politically, Prabowo-Gibran seems to be pulling ahead. Ganjar-Mahfud has the support of 147 seats (25.56 percent) in the House of Representatives (DPR), composed of PDI-P (128 seats) and PPP (19 seats). Anies-Muhaimin command the support from 167 seats (29.05 percent), derived from NasDem (59), PKS (59) and PKB (58).
Meanwhile, Prabowo-Gibran is far ahead with 261 seats (45.39 percent), comprising Gerindra (78), Golkar (85), PAN (44) and the Democratic Party (54).
The fourth capital, electability, is the most influential. General elections are a crucial moment in the political life of a country, when the people have the opportunity to choose their leaders and representatives to realize their shared aspirations.
In this process, the concept of electability becomes the main “arena” where the candidates compete, as well as being a crucial indicator for their future performance on the political stage.
Electability polls
Electability is a measure of a candidate’s or political party’s perceived ability to win an election, based on popular opinion. But it goes beyond just popularity, but rather real support that can translate into votes on election day. In a political context, electability is like a “currency” that demonstrates the credibility and likelihood of a candidate’s chance of victory.
High electability reflects strong acceptance and trust from voters, which can have an impact on electoral success. It can also attract financial support from various parties, both individuals and corporations. This support is important for an effective campaign, to fund advertising spending, rallies and other public activities that can increase the candidate’s visibility.
Strong electability also helps to build a positive image of the candidate in the eyes of the voters. High electability tends to attract media coverage, which can influence public opinion at large.
Electability does not just refer to the number of votes that a candidate may garner on election day, but reflects the public’s trust and support. In highly-competitive modern politics, having high electability is the key to success in achieving political positions.
According to recent electability polls conducted from late October to early November, Prabowo-Gibran has dominated nearly all of the surveys. In Indo Barometer’s survey of 1,230 respondents, Prabowo-Gibran garnered 34.2 percent followed by Ganjar-Mahfud (26.2 percent) and Anies-Muhaimin (18.3 percent).
In Poltracking Indonesia’s survey of 1,220 respondents, Prabowo-Gibran’s electability stood at 40.2 percent, trailed by Ganjar-Mahfud (30.1 percent) and Anies-Muhaimin (24.4 percent). Populi Center, which surveyed 1,200 respondents, found Prabowo-Gibran in the lead by a wide margin at 43.1 percent, beating Ganjar-Mahfud (23 percent) and Anies-Muhaimin (22.3 percent).
Figures released by pollster Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI), based on the answers of 1,229 respondents, showed Prabowo-Gibran leading at 35.9 percent, while Ganjar-Mahfud and Anies-Muhaimin lagged behind at 26.1 percent and 19.6 percent, respectively. In the survey by Political Indicators of 2,567 participants, Prabowo-Gibran perched at the top with 36.1 percent, while Ganjar-Mahfud followed with a close second with 33.7 percent, while Anies-Muhaimin got 23.7 percent.