KedaiKOPI surveys possible 2024 presidential candidates

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Gerindra Party General Chairman Prabowo Subianto. (Photo: M. ADE NOVERYZA)

Prabowo Subianto has top electability

IO – The survey agency Indonesian Public Opinion Discussion and Review Group (Kelompok Diskusi dan Kajian Opini Publik Indonesia – “KedaiKOPI”) has revealed that the electability of Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto in its survey on the figures deemed best to become Indonesian president in 2024, is higher than that of various figures ranging from President Joko Widodo to Governor of DKI Jakarta Anies Baswedan.

KedaiKOPI’s Executive Director, Kunto Adi Wibowo, reported that the survey was carried out with 1,260 respondents distributed across Indonesia’s 34 provinces, on 29 March-4 April 2021. Respondents were asked the name of figures that they believe to be worthy of becoming president in 2024. “Several names were mentioned: The abovementioned Mr. Prabowo Subianto; Joko Widodo is still mentioned; Ridwan Kamil, Anies Baswedan, Sandiaga Uno, Tri Rismaharini, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (“AHY”),” he said in a virtual discussion held on Monday (12/04/2021).

Prabowo Subianto was the top man at 24.5%, followed by Joko Widodo (18.5%), Ganjar Pranowo (16.0%), Ridwan Kamil (13.3%), and Anies Baswedan (12.5%). Other names mentioned by less than 10% of respondents include: Sandiaga Uno, Tri Rismaharini (“Risma”), AHY, Susi Pudjiastuti, and Basuki Tjahja Purnama (“Ahok”).

Responding to the survey, Vice General Chairman of Great Indonesia Movement (Gerakan Indonesia Raya – “Gerindra”) Party, Habiburokhman, Gerindra cadres want their General Chairman, Prabowo Subianto, to put himself back up for candidacy in the upcoming Presidential Elections. However, the Party declares that no decisions have been made about who to put up for candidacy in the 2024 Elections. “Yes, Gerindra cadres truly desire him to put himself back up for candidacy. However, no decisions have been made because naturally we need the agreement of the man himself,” he said.

Habiburokhman went on to say that Prabowo has strong electability in surveys because the public appreciates his job performance as the Minister of Defense and as a unifying element of the nation. “We will not react overmuch over survey results. Most citizens have moved on from the 2019 polarizing. We simply appreciate Mr. Prabowo for doing his utmost to serve and unify the nation,” he said.

The result of the KedaiKOPI survey is similar to that of the latest Charta Politika Indonesia survey in March this year. At the time, Charta Politika Indonesia’s survey shows that Gerindra Party Chairman Prabowo Subianto has the advantage over other figures. Charta Politika Indonesia’s Executive Director, Yunarto Wijaya, reported that Prabowo was voted by 19.2% of the total of 1,200 respondents. Ganjar Pranowo, Governor of Central Java, is in the second place at 16%, followed by the Governor of DKI Jakarta Anies Baswedan at 12.6%. “New names have appeared in the survey, including Mrs. Risma, the current Minister of Social Affairs; AHY; and Mahfud MD,” he stated on Sunday (28/03/2021).

To further confirm the results of Prabowo’s supremacy, Lembaga Survei Indonesia (“LSI”) survey in late February about the 2024 Presidential Election shows that: President Joko Widodo is the top-ofmind name presidential candidate among respondents at 18%. The next top-of-mind candidates are Prabowo (12%), Anies Baswedan (5.7%), Ganjar Pranowo (3.5%), and Sandiaga Uno (2.6%).

LSI’s subsequent semi-open survey, wherein respondents are given a list of 29 candidate names excluding Jokowi (as he can no longer become a candidate) and they are allowed to mention names not in the list, shows that Prabowo Subianto is the top name at 22.5%. He is followed by Ganjar Pranowo (10.6%), Anies Baswedan (10.2%), Ahok (7.2%), Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno (6.9%), Tri Rismaharini (5.5%), Ridwan Kamil (5%), and AHY (4.8%) respectively. Other names mentioned have less than 3% vote each, and 10.4% of respondents abstained.

The top reason provided by respondents for their selection of 2024 Presidential Candidates is that s/ he is “firm” and/or “dignified”, followed by “being down to earth” and/ or “showing concern for the people”. “As I recall, it’s the opposite back in 2019. The top reason at the time was “concern for the people”, with “being firm and/or dignified” being reason number 3 or 4,” said LSI researcher Djayadi Hanan.