Quick Count
While we are still waiting for the official results from KPU, unofficial “quick count” results based on sample votes by credible pollsters put the Prabowo-Gibran pair far ahead. For example, according to Indikator Politik Indonesia, Prabowo-Gibran gained 58.17 percent of the votes, leading by a wide margin (more than 30 percentage points) over Anies-Muhaimin with 25.38 percent and Ganjar-Mahfud with 16.46 percent. As quick count results have been a trusted and reliable indicator of the eventual outcome, KPU’s final tally will not differ much. This means that the 2024 presidential election is to be concluded in just one round and Prabowo-Gibran emerged the winner. As for the legislative election results, the quick count results show that PDI-P is leading, followed by Golkar and Gerindra.
With such a political landscape, I am of the view that GE2024 has become a catalyst for the maturity of our democracy. There are three reasons.
First, with PDI-P’s strong showing in the legislative elections, despite its candidate losing in the presidential election, there is a high chance that it will become an opposition force. This is good for our democracy because there will be checks and balances to executive power in the next administration. In the past 10 years, it can be said that the parliament has not been strong enough in controlling and balancing executive policies. With the emergence of PDI-P in the opposition bloc, the check and balance process between the legislative and executive branches can be restored. Moreover, PDI-P has quite a long track record as the opposition, from 2004 to 2014.
Second, the youth representation in the national political stage by the 36-year-old Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka. We have to be realistic in looking at Gibran issue. Why? Because his win is also a blessing in disguise for the accommodation of youth, the largest voting bloc in GE2024, in national leadership. Their turn has finally come.
And let’s not forget, according to various research studies, in many countries the age of their political leaders today is significantly older than the average age of their population. Bloomberg report in 2019 showed that since the 1950s the average age of political leaders globally has been 67.
The latest data from the Pew Research Center in 2023 also corroborated this fact. The majority (35 percent) of global leaders today are in their 60s and less than a quarter (22 percent) are in their 50s. The proportion of below 40s is only 18 percent, the same as the share for those in their 70s. The rest are those aged 80 and older.
The rise of Gibran can serve as a catalyst for the rejuvenation of political leadership in Indonesia. Indonesia can become a role model for other democratic countries.