Jakarta, IO – The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has evolved into a perilous nuclear game between Russia and the United States, each with distinct objectives. Russia seeks to deter direct U.S. and NATO intervention in the conflict, while the U.S. believes Russia won’t risk nuclear weapons use and provides robust military support to Ukraine. This dynamic has escalated tensions, raising the specter of nuclear war.
Before the special military operation, Russia conducted nuclear exercises, and on February 27, 2022, President Putin ordered nuclear forces to a special operational readiness, signaling the gravity of the situation. In response to Western assistance to Ukraine, Russia issued nuclear threats, aiming to enhance its deterrent posture. The U.S. and NATO, however, dismissed these warnings, viewing them as empty threats, and continued their involvement in the conflict, gradually escalating their support for Ukraine.
The U.S. and NATO downplay the risk of Russian nuclear strikes, with White House statements and NATO’s response lacking a sense of urgency about imminent nuclear war. This cautious optimism emboldens the U.S. to increase military assistance to Ukraine, stepping over perceived red lines set by Russia. The assistance includes old Soviet tanks, advanced artillery, and plans for airplanes, signaling a strategic shift in the West’s confrontation with Russia.
As the conflict intensifies, the U.S. and NATO provide Ukraine with advanced weaponry, including Leopard-2 and M1 Abrams battle tanks, F-16 fighter jets, and even cluster bombs, pushing the confrontation to dangerous heights. The world is brought to the brink of nuclear war, reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis, revealing the severity of the situation. The root cause lies in deteriorating U.S.-Russia relations, with the conflict becoming a proxy war and both sides unwilling to acknowledge their direct involvement.
The Cold War era, marked by mutual respect and arms reduction treaties, has given way to a more hostile relationship. Key arms control agreements, including the ABM Treaty, INF Treaty, and Open Skies Treaty, have been abandoned, eroding the constraints on nuclear capabilities. The New START treaty, suspended by Russia, faces an uncertain future, leaving both nations free from binding rules in the nuclear realm.
The military doctrines of both nations evolve, with explicit targeting of each other as adversaries. The breakdown of arms control systems heightens the risk of nuclear war, and the nuclear game between the U.S. and Russia continues without established rules. The theories of nuclear deterrence failure, limited nuclear war, and nuclear disaster exaggeration contribute to the transformation of nuclear weapon use from an abstract concept to a realistic policy.
While the U.S. and Russia are locked in a nuclear game, potential solutions remain elusive. The key lies in improving U.S.-Russian relations, but the likelihood of this in the near future is minimal. Calls for a ceasefire face challenges, as it implies maintaining the status quo, which neither party is willing to accept. Attempts at interest exchange between Russia and NATO prove futile, as core security concerns remain unaddressed.
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The international community, particularly countries in the Global South, has a role in preventing nuclear war. Clear and firm voices against nuclear war must be raised, addressing all nuclear powers involved in the conflict. The focus should be on averting the worst-case scenario and emphasizing that the Russia-Ukrainian conflict transcends bilateral concerns, impacting the interests and destiny of all nations.
In this precarious situation, both the U.S. and Russia should exercise restraint, confine the standoff to a local level, and avoid geographical expansion. A localized approach can prevent further escalation, providing an opportunity for a peaceful resolution. The international community must assert the importance of global interests over the conflict, urging both parties to prioritize peace and avoid catastrophic consequences.
Professor Zhao Huasheng, a leading expert on international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai and a contributor to the China Forum, brings his deep understanding of global affairs to the table.