Yet post-Ukraine, Erdogan has successfully leveraged Turkey’s strategic position on the Black Sea, and its close ties with both Moscow and Kiev, to its advantage. Europe’s new security fears means Turkey can use its potential veto over Sweden’s NATO application to squeeze concessions from the US and EU. Ties with the US may still be frosty, but western priorities in Ukraine have amplified Ankara’s importance, giving it greater leverage.
The same is true of Saudi Arabia. Before the war, President Joe Biden tried to shun Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, condemning the Kingdom’s human rights abuses, its heavy bombing of Yemen and the Prince’s alleged role in the murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Yet the huge spike in global oil prices caused by the Ukraine war and Russian sanctions has provoked a volte-face from the White House. With cap in hand, Biden shook off his own concerns and previous criticisms, and visited Saudi in July to plead for oil production increases. Riyadh refused, a stance it also took when Boris Johnson visited in March. Such was the West’s desperation for cheaper oil, the Crown Prince was able to secure diplomatic rehabilitation without granting any concessions.
While western leaders may hold outdated views of Saudi Arabia as a client state, in reality it has spent the last few decades diplomatically diversifying. It enjoys close ties with China, which is the greatest consumer of its oil. Long before the Ukraine war, Riyadh was dealing with a multi-polar reality: continuing its close links with Washington, but not relying on them in the way it once did. The war has exposed this reality to a surprised west, forcing Washington and its allies to a humbling climbdown.
While Turkey and Saudi Arabia have used the Ukraine crisis to improve previously damaged ties with the West, the UAE was in no such bind, and has found even greater success in this new context. For many years now, the Gulf state has expanded its ‘multi-networked’ approach, building relationships across the world.