What happens in Ukraine does not stay in Ukraine, not only in terms of its impact on food and energy security but also possibly the security outlook for Asia in the coming years.
The China-Russia relationship is of particular interest, especially since US intelligence, agencies have discovered that China has been providing non-lethal aid to the Russian military and is considering providing lethal aid, as well. The Biden administration has sharply rebuked Beijing and warned dire consequences should they start sending lethal aid to help Putin escalate the war.
Biden has not mentioned what exactly the US response would be, but it›s not difficult to fathom what steps would be taken. For sure Washington would place even tougher, economic sanctions on China. On the military side of the equation the response could be an increase in military aid to its allies in the Asia Pacific and the deployment of more US military personnel and hardware in South Korea and the Philippines. Finally. China becoming indirectly involved in Ukraine could also prompt Washington to increase its budget for military aid to Taiwan.
Read: Middle powers thrive in the post-Ukraine world order
In short, the war in Ukraine could end up having serious consequences for Asia, not only in North Asia but Southeast Asia, as well. An arms race in the region could ensue and tensions would invariably rise on the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan and potentially over the disputed South China Sea. Much depends on Xi Jinping and what he calculates is his next best move. (James Van Zorge)