Jakarta, IO – I tried to listen very carefully different reports on television and newspapers, as the one on CNN with Errin Burnett OutFront, and several others, and heard gleefully but not surprisingly that former President Donald Trump is very unlikely to be able to participate in 2024 Presidential Election, the reason being obvious: among the different legal cases he faces, one regards his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election to make him the winner and stay in power; this has been decided by a Judge in a session on January 2, 2024.
It occurred at the Federal Court in Washington DC, presided over by District Judge Tanya Chutkan. With the trial ongoing, it would be very difficult for the former President to participate in debates that would be conducted around these times, as he must be present in Court in session discussing his case. This is my understanding, but I am frankly not quite yet sure.
Regarding the case itself, it is almost predictable that the former President would plead “Not Guilty” to any count that the prosecutor raises in court, and thus the court must continue to hear witnesses from both sides. This is how I understand the court proceedings, which makes it impossible for Mr Trump to do anything else, like campaign or participate in debates, which means he cannot participate in the campaign for President. And this is only one of the cases involving Mr Trump.
There are others, such as that related to January 6, 2022, on the attack on the Capitol Building, as an act of insurrection, and potentially even treason, that he masterminded, along with the case where he asked Georgia State Secretary Raffensperger to “find” 11,780 votes, which would make him the winner in that state; in other states his complaints centered on votes stolen from him. But even one case is already enough to kick him out of the contest.
Further developments
During the pre-trial hearing in DC Court with Judge Tanya Chutkan presiding, the Judge issue a ruling that in essence threatened former President Trump, who is facing accusations on four counts, including disrupting proceedings to certify and count votes, conspiring to overturn the results of an election and two others, that if he disrupts the ruling – such as threatening witnesses – she could send him to jail during the proceedings, till a Jury decides whether he is guilty or not guilty. Afterwards, the Judge will decide on the sentence. To me this sounds very serious, a ruling coming from a Judge appointed by President Obama. Judge Tanya Chutkan is known as smart, tactical, fearless yet fair and very professional. All this implies that she will be the key to detention for Mr Trump: if he violates the rules, he will place himself in detention during the proceedings. But she also reminds everyone that former President Trump, who will be tried January 2, 2024, is innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt; that will be decided by a jury in court, after hearing testimony from all witnesses.
Some have been commenting that his lawyers will be asking to postpone the proceedings until after the Presidential Election, in the hope that if he is elected, he could pardon himself once he becomes President. The speculation is that the Judge would rule to postpone for a while, but not until after the election.
If the above scenario is correct, then there will be a reduction of the number of the Republican Party Presidential Candidates. That means the list will become: Florida Governor DeSantis, former VP Mike Pence, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former finance and tech CEO Vivek Ramaswamy, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, and Governor of North Dakota Doug Burgum. For the time being, Governor Ron DeSantis is the front-runner, but it depends on the developments after the debates or if he makes erroneous statements, or otherwise blunders. So, we must wait for the next development. But for sure the so many voters of former President Trump will be spread out among all other candidates. It is not sure who will get the most, that will guarantee of winning the Republican Primary and formally becoming the Republican Candidate against Joe Biden as the Democratic Party Candidate.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic Party side there does not seem to be any changes, and the Democratic Candidate will be President Joe Biden with Kemala Harris as his running mate. His hurdle remains the legal case of his son Hunter Biden, that Trump supporters weaponize to keep attacking President Biden, accusing him of obstructing the election and shifting the attention from his son’s legal case to him. This is an obstruction to the Presidential Election as he argues.
Ok, just before I send my draft I discovered the latest development: a Supreme Court ruling that would disbar Mr Trump from any elected office, let alone President of the US. The most damning evidence is proof from Mar a Lago CCTV, which reveals that Mr Trump ordered his trusted staff to destroy evidence. This is a criminal offense more serious, as he has also been accused of for keeping boxes of classified documents in his residence. With this one it is now crystal clear that former President Donald Trump will not be allowed to participate in the 2024 Presidential Election.
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Meanwhile, ASEAN leaders surely expect President Biden to come to the ASEAN Summit as a dialogue partner. Indonesia, as the Chair holder this year, and as the largest country that always considers the US as a friend if not a formal ally, must wish to get treatment similar to that which President Biden accorded to PM Modi when the latter visited Washington DC. The Philippines has always been a US ally, and Vietnam, that suffered so much in the Sixties war, has also turned to become a good friend afterwards, so there is no way that he could avoid of coming to the upcoming Summit, I suppose.
Well, we will see whether President Biden will come or not soon. Afterwards President Biden must face whoever would win the Republican Primary. He enjoys several positive results from his domestic policy, which he must hope to be able to cover whatever negative implication he receives from the Hunter Biden legal case. In my take, he has more favorable points than negative ones, such that whoever from the Republican Party he will face, he should be able to win and continue his Presidency.