Threat of Stagflation, between risk and solution, is there any better?


Jakarta, IO – Among Plague, War and Food Supply 

Until now, global conditions are still in the phase of economic recovery from the effects of covid 19. Even in the country of origin of the outbreak, the country is still struggling against the outbreak. Not finished with the epidemic, in early 2022 the world was again shocked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, although at first the reason for the invasion was not a complex problem, but until now, the war that has been going on for four months has become a new focus problem in the world that has caused many problems. risks in terms of human security are real or not. The pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are just two of the big problems facing global governments today, we don’t count the minor border wars, the Jewish Israeli invasion of Palestine, new epidemics that have the potential to threaten human life, climate and energy issues. Why the epidemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war are counted as big problems and challenges today is because the outbreak and the Russo-Ukrainian War threaten the flow of distribution of logistics goods as well as energy. If this is studied further, it could be because the countries that are the main players at this time are countries that have great power. The involvement of the big powers will become a magnet for other countries, the impact will also be felt by many countries and also the state actors involved. The biggest impact globally today is that epidemics and wars have threatened global economic stability. At least, there are about 10 countries in the world that have experienced inflation and are threatened with a recession in the second quarter of 2022. The issue of global political dynamics requires every country to always look for a balance point so that it can continue to exist in all fields, including the economic field. Several major countries in the world are currently experiencing high inflation rates, and are even experiencing a period of recession. Before discussing inflation and stagflation further, it is necessary to recall some terms in the threat of the economic environment. There are at least four terms used by economists to describe economic threats, namely recession, crisis, inflation and depression. 

The inflationary tsunami swept across countries in the United States, Europe and other countries. At least 60% of countries have an annual inflation rate above 5%. In developing countries, inflation can be above 7%. According to data from Trading Economics in April 2022, there were at least 10 countries with the highest inflation with Venezuela in the first place with high inflation reaching 222%, followed by Zimbabwe, which was 96.40% and then Turkey which almost reached 70% in April. then. Uncertain economic growth causes recessions and crises. Global consensus is now for world economic growth to average just 3.3% this year, down from the 4.1% expected last January, before the war broke out. Global inflation is forecast at 6.2%, or 2.25% higher than last January’s forecast. The IMF lowered its forecast for this year’s 143 countries that account for 86% of global gross domestic product (GDP).