According to a survey conducted by the ROK International Trade Association in 2021, 1,850 of the 12,586 categories of commodities imported (including raw materials and components) had an 80 percent reliance on China. For example, China’s environmental restrictions on industrial urea shipments nearly brought the ROK’s freight sector to a standstill in November. South Korea’s significant reliance on China in the industrial chain cannot be overcome in the medium future.
Second, the ROK thinks that joining the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework will help it extend its own economic space, although the framework does not provide significant benefits to other member nations in terms of market access and tax reductions. Rather, it has more constraints, therefore its future remains uncertain.
Third, the new ROK administration does not share the former government’s strategic uncertainty on matters concerning the Korean Peninsula and regional affairs. It thinks that the stronger the US-ROK relationship strengthens, the higher the ROK’s position and worth would rise. In reality, if it completely implements US strategy, it risks aggravating regional tensions and animosity, undermining its own power in adopting a middle course on the peninsula and regional issues, and undermining its aspiration to become a significant global state. A strong US military deployment would put the ROK at the frontline of a major-power security struggle, and the nuclear problem would boil up.
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Recognizing these difficulties, the ROK briefed China about the US-ROK summit promptly following President Biden’s visit, trying to minimize misunderstandings on the Chinese side. The Republic of Korea emphasized that the IPEF “does not exclude China” and that follow-up talks on the China-ROK FTA are still ongoing. Economic and political leaders in the Republic of Korea have advocated for a more balanced approach to strategic collaboration with China and relations with the United States. A new Cold War is neither in the interests of most countries nor consistent with globalization. As a result, regional countries must exhibit restraint and wisdom in order to avoid erring on the wrong side of history. (M. Raihan Ronodipuro)
M. Raihan Ronodipuro achieved a Master of Law in International Relations from the School of International and Public Affairs at Jilin University in China. He serves as an Associate Researcher in the Department of Politics and Security at the Center for Indonesia-China Studies (CICS). Raihan is currently working as a special aide to the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) faction at the House of Representatives of the Republic of Indonesia (DPR RI), assigned to committee 1 (defense, foreign, and Information Affairs).