The topic of this US-ROK summit was similar to that of the previous year’s, with the exception that the previous South Korean government’s stance on China-US strategic competition was more measured and controlled. The new ROK administration has taken more form and practical stances on key topics. It is fair to conclude that the US-ROK alliance has made significant progress in terms of coordination, establishing a system for synergy and target positioning.
At the same time, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol is dealing with “a tiny administration but a robust opposition.” Nonetheless, with US assistance, his government steadily eased opposition party limits in staff appointments, internal and foreign policy, and local elections, and it has reinforced its governing base.
Although it is unclear how the US-ROK partnership will play out, the signals it has already delivered will have far-reaching consequences for the area. The United States and the South korea are striving to collaborate exclusively in the high-tech and supply chain sectors, which is sure to have a significant influence on the highly integrated economic relations between China and the South korea.
Given that South Korea already has an extended deterrence guarantee from the US and a clear advantage over the DPRK in conventional weapons, increased US military deployments on the peninsula will not only increase the DPRK’s sense of insecurity and incite hardline countermeasures, but will also pose potential threats to neighboring countries such as China and Russia, exacerbating the regional security dilemma. Meanwhile, the United States and the South korea are pursuing a values-based alliance in the Indo-Pacific area, further dividing the region. This goes opposite to the post-Cold War era’s non-ideological regional cooperation approach.
Although the US-ROK gesture to reinforce the alliance is powerful, its continuing advancement will be more constrained. First, economic, scientific, and technical cooperation between South Korea and the United States is not a substitute for economic connections with China. South Korea is attempting to develop an economic edge — a semiconductor alliance with the United States — that would prevent China from catching up. In reality, the Republic of Korea has profited considerably from its commerce with China, with exports to the nation accounting for more than 26% of total exports.