Thursday, April 18, 2024 | 05:30 WIB

The good news is that recession is mild

J. Soedradjad Djiwandono
J. Soedradjad Djiwandono, Emeritus Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, and Adjunct Professor of International Economics, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

Further Observations 

Yes, recession would be mild, thank you. But any recession also means disruption. For some companies, in IT and Finance the disruption it is still causing problems. It started with the decision by Elon Musk to reduce the staffs of Twitter the moment he acquired the company. This has created ripples to smaller IT companies. Since most of them gave part of the remuneration of staffs in shares, the layoffs caused most of them selling their shares that depressed their prices. Elon Musk did not just do this at Twitter, but also at the electric vehicle Tesla that also caused employees laid off. Regarding the EV the reason for Tesla of doing so was that competition in production of EV is very tough, many new companies producing EV, which making competition tougher. 

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Across the Atlantic, what happened in the US is a bit different. The economic issue of recession was discarded earlier than in EU countries. However, the problems are related to the political development. In Congress there is a shift of power from the Democrat to the Republican. And the Republican itself has been having problem inside, which came out into the open in the choice of the new Speaker of the House. Kevin McCarthy, Congressman from California had been voicing as if it was automatically his right as the Minority Leader to hold the Gavel, replacing Nancy Pelosi to become the new Speaker. As it turned out there were sizeable number of extreme right Republican, the like of Lauren Boebert of Colorado, Matt Gaetz of Florida, and some others that together numbered 20. Only after giving concession after concession and promises of rule changes, and 15 balloting, Kevin McCarthy finally succeeded to achieve his longtime dream of becoming Speaker of the House. And right away, after this tiring fight he started his bumpy road to lead the House for carrying the works. From his own side, he wanted to use the power of the purse, limiting the borrowing ceiling for the Government, limiting aid to Ukraine, setting up select committees for investigating Hunter Biden, President Boden’s son on his holding commandership of a state oil Company in Ukraine that was alleged influence of Joe Biden during the time he served VP for President Obama. He also wants to summon President Biden on his role to the US army withdrawals from Afghanistan years back. Thus, he has a full plate on his program, all are tricky that may invite fight by Democrat and even extreme right Republican. 

Final Note 

We should be grateful that the world seems to face only mild recession. However, as I alluded above that does not mean authorities in all countries could just be passive and watching the process unfolded. There are many tricky issues that each country must carefully address or else the mild character would change into serious one that no one is looking forward to.

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