IO – The scheme to delay the 2024 Election has resurfaced, and has now been approved by three political parties: PKB, PAN and Golkar. The parties are aware that postponement of an election suggests a constitutional violation or, more precisely a “constitutional coup d’état or coup”, altering the Constitution in order to perpetuate power.
“A Constitutional coup is when power is seized within the framework of a country’s constitution. The actors are already members of the government and will alter their government’s constitution to legally seize power. Examples include: extending an incumbent’s mandate through the removal of term or age limits, changing electoral rules to hinder opposing candidates, and postponing elections indefinitely.”
The 1945 Constitution clearly stipulates elections are to be held every five years, and upcoming elections must be held in 2024.
Numerous rationales are put forward. This essay highlights two of them: the economy-related argument (state finances) and Jokowi’s popularity, reaching 73.9 percent. Both reasons suggested the 2024 Election be delayed; several political parties propose to proceed with the constitutional coup.
According to a survey by Lembaga Survei, Jokowi’s popularity has reached a peak since 2015. Therefore, several political parties suggested extending the reign. Both the popularity and consequently the extension are obviously a gate to the constitutional coup.
First, the President’s soaring popularity is no reason for a constitutional coup, extending the term of office to three presidential periods. Should this happen, the President’s popularity can prolong the authority and sustain the presidency.
The nation will be ensnared in an endless constitutional coup d’état and imperil the future of Indonesians.
The President’s popularity survey also raises questions and doubts; on the contrary, the current economic crisis makes it harder to justify the survey results.
Since the onset of the pandemic, Jokowi’s government has recorded the weakest economic growth, compared to SBY’s first and second terms. Average economic growth from 2014 to 2019 was only 5.03 percent per year, much lower than the 2004- 2009 period, which was only 5.63 percent and the following 2009-2014 period of 5.80 percent. The 2020 and 2021 figures are even worse in terms of performance.
With a worsening debt ratio, the government’s loan from 2004 to 2009 soared some 22.6 percent or IDR 292.7 trillion, intensified in 2009- 2014 by IDR 1,018 trillion (64 percent) and mounting in 2014-2019 to a total IDR 2,176 trillion or 83.4 percent. Government loans have leapt 44.4 percent, owing IDR 2,124 trillion for the past two years (2020 and 2021).
Thus, survey results reporting Jokowi’s popularity has been the highest since 2015 is merely incredulous. In 2015, the people were in awe and filled with high expectations of the new President, promising new hopes.
Second, another reason presented to delay the 2024 General Election is that they run the risk of hindering economic growth and revival; therefore, they must be postponed. This reasoning is deluded. Obeying and serving the Constitution and the law is the key to holding on and living as a nation and country, much more essential than economic growth.
The Election is predicted to raise the economic activity of the people and propel economic growth. The election budget will stimulate the economy. The fear that the Election will hinder economic growth is unreasonable and does not make any sense.
One acceptable reason would be that poorer state finances will likely be the norm if the Election is to fall in 2024. However, should the Election be held back to 2027, it will not solve state finances. There is no guarantee that state finance will be better by 2027. What if they get worse? Will the Election be postponed again?
Bear in mind that the 1999 Election was conducted satisfactorily, participated by 48 political parties, although state finances were at rock bottom as a result of the monetary crisis from 1997 to 1998, forcing the government to give in its economic sovereignty and beg for loans from the IMF. The 1999 Election is evidence and a precedent to break all the reasons for delaying the 2024 Election.
Supposed state finances are a dominant consideration for holding up the Election; should state finances worsen in 2024—since the budget deficit is fixed to a maximum of 3 percent of GDP—, the solution is to push forward the 2024 Election to 2022. The state finance is still allowed to create a limitless deficit in 2022, while the Bank of Indonesia is still permitted to purchase government bonds to fund the budget’s deficit from bonds. Therefore, 2022 state finances are capable of financing an election.
We should not miss the opportunity since 2023 state finances will run normally again.
May this piece of writing become a consideration or an appeal for the Chairpersons of the political parties to save the 2s024 Election and protect our nation.