Eventually, the West might manage to convince others to wean themselves off Russian oil and gas. But China, Russia’s biggest customer, is unlikely to oblige. After all, if bankrolling Putin’s war machine means the conflict in Ukraine will continue for perhaps years, this plays to Beijing’s interests since it would mean Washington and Brussels would be distracted from the Indo-Pacific.
New Dehli is also unlikely to change its mind about sanctioning Russia. India and Russia have had a long-standing close relationship for the past five decades ever since the USSR backed India in its 1971 war with Pakistan. From an economics perspective Russia is an important partner since energy-poor India depends on Russia not only for fossil fuels but also fertilizers. Equally important is the fact that Russia is India’s largest weapon supplier, something which New Dehli is not willing to forego as tensions with Pakistan and China continue to fester.
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While China’s and India’s refusal to sanction Russia are understandable, one looking for strategic gain while the other mostly for economic reasons, such pragmatism could eventually be proven short-sighted. The longer Putin manages to finance the war in Ukraine and he feels encouraged to escalate, the more the world faces the prospect of a deepening economic recession. Hyper-inflation and even stagflation could plague the global economy. Food security is also a risk that everybody should be concerned about: before the war there were 1.2 billion people facing food insecurity and 39 million were at risk of famine, now there are 1.6 billion facing food insecurity and 49 million at risk of famine. Such numbers are truly sobering, and it could get a lot worse if the war were to drag on. (James Van Zorge)