Puspoll Indonesia latest political survey: Prabowo Subianto top position in 2024 Presidential Candidate survey

General Chairman of Great Indonesia Movement (“Gerindra”) Party Prabowo Subianto. (Photo: Rayi Gigih/IO)

IO – Puspoll Indonesia’s Executive Director, Muslimin Tanja, reported the results of the survey “Assessing the Chance of 2024 Presidential Candidates and the Challenges of the Islamic Axis” on Sunday (23/05/2021): “Puspoll Indonesia asked respondents, ‘If the Presidential Elections were to be held today, who would you choose to become the President from these 22 names?’ he said. “Our survey discovered that the popularity, acceptability, and electability of Great Indonesia Movement (Gerakan Indonesia Raya – “Gerindra”) Party General Chairman Prabowo Subianto is at the top, with 20.9% of respondents declaring that they will vote for him when the time comes.” 

Prabowo is ahead of other strong contenders in the list, which includes Governor of Jakarta Anies Baswedan (15.4%); Governor of Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo (13.8%); Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy, Sandiaga Uno (7.1%); as well as Governor of West Java, Ridwan Kamil, and General Chairman of Democrat Party, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (“AHY”) (4.9% each). 

In terms of “suitability as presidential candidate”, Muslimin reported that Prabowo remains the top choice of respondents at 66.2%, followed by Anies (60.1%); Sandiaga (50.8%); Ridwan Kamil (45.8%); and Ganjar 

Pranowo (43.4%). “Our graphs show that Mr. Prabowo’s recognizability is 93%. In any statistical count or survey, that’s the top figure,” he said. 

Meanwhile, Gerindra General Vice Chairman Sugiono declared that the Party will still support Prabowo for candidacy in the upcoming 2024 Presidential Elections. “I believe that Mr. Ahmad Muzani (the Party’s General Secretary) has stated in a recent interview after the Party Congress that we, Gerindra cadres, still want Mr. Prabowo as a presidential candidate from the Gerindra Party,” he said. “We need to say once again that we, Gerindra cadres, are still unanimous in our request to ask Mr. Prabowo to head back into the Presidential candidacy.” 

The Puspoll Indonesia survey used multistage random sampling with consideration of the proportion of respondents who live in urban and rural areas, as well as the proportion of the total number of samples to the number of voters in each province. The sample is 1,600 respondents, the margin of error is ± 2.45% and reliability level of 95%. 

Prabowo’s name is frequently cited in surveys relating to the candidacy for the 2024 Presidential Elections. For example, the survey created by the Indonesian Public Discussion and Opinion Group (Kelompok Diskusi dan Kajian Opini Publik Indonesia – “KedaiKOPI”) survey agency in April this year records in the open electability survey the figures who are considered suitable for the Presidency in 2024 that Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto has an even higher level of electability than various figures from President Joko Widodo to Governor of DKI Jakarta Anies Baswedan. 

KedaiKOPI’s Executive Director, Kunto Adi Wibowo, stated that the survey was performed with 1,260 respondents distributed in 34 provinces across Indonesia, from 29 March to 4 April 2021. Respondents were asked, “Who do you think is worthy of becoming president in 2024?” “Several names were mentioned: First the above, Mr. Prabowo Subianto; then Joko Widodo was still mentioned; Ridwan Kamil, Anies Baswedan, Sandiaga Uno, Tri Rismaharini, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono,” Kunto stated in a virtual discussion held on 12 April 2021. “Prabowo Subianto topped the survey at 24.5%, followed by Joko Widodo (18.5%), then with Ganjar Pranowo (16.0%).” 

The Puspoll Indonesia and KedaiKOPI surveys merely confirmed the results of the Charta Politika Indonesia survey in March this year: “Prabowo Subianto is the top favored choice.” Charta Politika Indonesia’s Executive Director, Yunarto Wijaya, reported that Prabowo earned 19.2% confidence of a total of 1,200 respondents they interviewed. Second place after Prabowo was Governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranowo (16%), followed by Governor of DKI Jakarta Anies Baswedan (12.6%). Similarly, Lembaga Survei Indonesia (“LSI”)’s February 2021 survey concerning possible candidacy for the 2024 Presidential Elections shows Prabowo’s advantage: Respondent top of mind name for the 2024 Presidential Elections is President Joko Widodo (18%), followed by Prabowo (12%), Anies Baswedan (5.7%), Ganjar Pranowo (3.5%), and Sandiaga Uno (2.6%).

LSI followed up that survey with a semi-open survey wherein the respondent was given a list of 29 names that excluded Jokowi as he cannot become a candidate again and they can mention other names that they prefer which do not appear in the list. The result: Prabowo Subianto is the top contender candidate with 22.5% votes, followed by Ganjar Pranowo (10.6%), Anies Baswedan (10.2%), Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (“Ahok”) (7.2%), Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno (6.9%), Tri Rismaharini (5.5%), Ridwan Kamil (5%), and AHY (4.8%). Less than 3% respondents choose other names, while the remaining 10.4% abstained. 

The top reason for respondents to choose 2024 Presidential is “firm” or “dignified”, followed by “being down to earth” or “care about the people”. “As I recall, the reasons were the other way around back in 2019. The first reason was “care for the people”, while “being firm and dignified” was either number 3 or 4,” said LSI researcher Djayadi Hanan at the time. (Dessy)