Thursday, March 28, 2024 | 19:32 WIB

Peace in Ukraine: An Impossible Deal?

IO – If there is to be some sort of deal that ends the war in Ukraine, then it must be one that Russia’s Putin, Ukraine’s Zelenski and the West can all agree upon. 

Yet there is difficulty in trying to imagine what such a deal would look like. 

For Putin – who erroneously thought his military would enter Ukraine and be embraced by Ukrainians with Russian ethnic heritage ,only to be faced with stiff resistance – he must now deal with the prospect of humiliation should he fail to subjugate Ukraine. Putin must also be fearful for his own legacy and even regime survival should the war turn out to be yet another example of a superpower being entrapped in a long and costly quagmire. 

Much to Putin’s surprise and that of the rest of the world, the war has changed Ukrainians’ sense of self-identity, of who they are and where they belong in the world. It is clear the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians will not allow themselves to become pawns on the chessboard of superpower politics, with Russia and the West making a deal to carve up Ukraine into spheres of influence. They want to be in control of their own fate, and are already proving this through their defiance of Russian troops in streets across Ukraine. 

Before the war, the West viewed Ukraine as being part of what was once the Soviet Union and a complex foreign policy challenge, but one which had few implications beyond the far reaches of Eastern Europe. Now, suddenly, Western leaders believe Ukraine represents the fate of liberal democracy and values, not only in Ukraine itself but in other parts of the world, as well. 

Hence the complexity of searching for a deal that will satisfy all of the stakeholders in the Ukraine conflict. 

Recently the Kremlin made clear its demands to bring an end to the war. As before, Russia not only wants assurances that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO, it also wants Ukraine to recognize Crimea as part of Russia and to accept a declaration that Eastern Ukraine is an independent state. The Kremlin, seeking to work nations with a stake in the conflict, is also demanding a complete demilitarization of Ukraine. 

In an apparent nod to Russia, Zelenski has recently stated that Ukraine will not insist on joining NATO. He has also signaled that he is willing to discuss the future status of Donetsk and Luhansk with Putin. These are pro-Russian republics in eastern Ukraine that have been at war with Kyiv since 2014, and which Putin wants Ukraine to recognize as sovereign and independent states. 

That Zelenski would be willing to compromise with Putin on NATO membership is not entirely surprising – give Putin’s long-standing grievances with NATO’s eastward expansion following the end of the Cold War and the fact that one of his main rationales for invading Ukraine was to prevent it from ever becoming a NATO member. It is thus probably seen as a reasonable compromise to make if there is ever to be a chance of ending the war. 

Donetsk and Luhansk have long been a thorn in the side of Kyiv, and given their populations’ strong pro-Russian identity, it was would be reasonable for Zelenski to propose a dialogue with Putin on the fate of these regions. 

When it comes to the future of the entire eastern half of Ukraine, however, any discussions between Moscow and Kyiv will be much more challenging. 

While it is true many east Ukrainians speak the Russian language, it is also true they have a strong sense of place, history and shared culture with their fellow Ukrainians. 

It is worth keeping in mind that over the past decade, Putin has painted himself as a sort of pan-Slavic leader who believes he has a historic mission of sorts to somehow realize what is known as Russkiy Mir, or Russian World, a construct that has its origins as far back as the 11th century and which Putin has restored to ft his vision of Russia clawing back the borders of the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire. 

If Putin’s main motivation for invading Ukraine was not just security-related but has more to do with his notion of restoring what he envisages as Russkiy Mir, then the chances of achieving peace are significantly smaller than otherwise. 

Zelensky has already made some important compromises, but if Putin is intent on carving up Ukraine into even more rump statelets besides Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk or a larger rump Ukraine in the western part of the country, he will be met with stiff resistance – not only from Ukrainians (the vast majority of whom want to decide for themselves their country’s fate), but also the Western alliance, which rightly believes that if Putin gets his way in fracturing Ukraine then he will feel emboldened to invade other countries with Slavic populations – those which were once under the Soviet Union, such as Georgia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. 

In other words, the West could easily reach an impasse with Putin. Sadly, Putin made a massive miscalculation by underestimating the potential resolve of Ukrainians and the West. Now facing stiff resistance on the ground in Ukraine and unprecedented economic sanctions that will hurt not only the average Russian but also Russian oligarchs, Putin’s original plan to occupy Ukraine on short order have gone completely awry. He is now a man without an end game, and for the West to help Putin find a face-saving settlement in the fog of war is an extraordinary tall order that, at least for now, is out of reach. 

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