Westerners and Non-Aligned Factions
In terms of Indonesia’s current national interests, Jokowi requires Russian economic backing as well as Russian arms from Russia and China. As a result, despite US objections, Jokowi asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the G20 summit meeting in Bali in the name of the rotating chairman of the G20; nevertheless, he also followed the will of US President Joe Biden and invited Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to attend the summit.
Jokowi explained that Putin was invited because Russia is a G20 member and has the right to attend; Ukraine was invited because the G20 was primarily discussing economic issues, and the current economic issues are inextricably linked to the coronavirus and the Ukrainian crisis, so Zelenskyy was invited to attend the summit. From Indonesia’s perspective, this neither offends Russia nor confronts the US. Zelenskyy requested Indonesian assistance, and Jokowi agreed to deliver humanitarian relief to Ukraine but not weaponry, citing Indonesia’s foreign policy.
The arrival of President Jokowi’s peace mission this time has divided Indonesian diplomatic elites during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Both are represented by Hikmahanto Juwana, a professor at the University of Indonesia, and Dr. Dino Patti Djalal, a former Indonesian ambassador to the United States.
Dino accused Russia of aggression against neighboring nations, bombarding Ukrainian cities, and slaughtering innocent people in his address assessing the Russian-Ukrainian war in mid-April. Russia must halt its actions immediately. Dino’s speech was praised by the Ukrainian ambassador in Indonesia, who was there.
Non-aligned supporters think the world has reverted to its historical polarization, with the West dominated by the United States and the non-Western camp dominated by Russia and China. Indonesia is hesitant to take sides between the two camps, nor is it ready to spark a military clash between two antagonistic powers in Southeast Asia. They did, however, understand Russia’s ambition for a buffer state. More significantly, Indonesia will retake the lead among non-aligned countries.
This time, Jokowi went to Ukraine and Russia as a mediator, aiming to play the role of non-aligned nations’ leader. Can Jokowi, however, manage the tension between Russia and Ukraine?
When Jokowi left, Professor Hikmahanto explained in an interview with Kompas TV that the relationship between Russia and Ukraine is complicated, and Jokowi does not expect a solution to the Russian-Ukrainian war, but if the two sides can cease fire, a temporary peace can be achieved, and casualties can be reduced, restoring food and energy supply chains is already an accomplishment.
According to the interviewer, both Israel and Turkey attempted to arbitrate between Russia and Ukraine, but both failed. Why is it predicted that Indonesia would succeed? Hikmahanto stated that at the start of the conflict, both sides believed they could win and were unwilling to talk. Now things are a little different. Russia has not been able to end the conflict fast, and it is a burden for Russia to continue fighting, while Ukraine has incurred enormous deaths, and a protracted war is not favorable for Ukraine.
If Jokowi intervenes and the two nations agree to a cease-fire, neither Putin nor Zelenskyy will lose face. He emphasized that the concern is whether Jokowi would be able to meet with Biden at the G7 conference and gain guarantees from Biden that he will not accept Ukraine as a NATO member. This is the root of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Although the West has unified against Russia to some level, Putin wants nations such as Indonesia to either ignore the pressure or form a counter-alliance known as the “new G8.” China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Iran, Turkey, and Russia are the nations that have not placed sanctions on Russia. The concept of a “new G8” has little chance of being adopted. However, Jokowi’s journey to Moscow demonstrates that Russia is not alone.
Special meeting with G7 leaders over food and fertilizer exports
On June 27, Jokowi met with Biden for photographs and chatted with other summit participants. Jokowi did not mention energy in his official speech at the summit, instead emphasizing the importance of the food supply chain, without which people in developing countries will suffer greatly, so he asked the G7 and G20 summits to support his proposal: Ukrainian grain exports cannot be hampered, and Russian grain and fertilizer cannot be sanctioned.
Jokowi made no mention of crucial NATO concerns. Jokowi appears to be focusing on food and fertilizer in this negotiation with the leaders of the seven nations, and is hesitant to tackle NATO issues publicly so as not to be self-defeating. Following the conference, Jokowi flew to Ukraine and Russia, and it does not appear that his peacemaker mission to be an immediate success.
However, Hikmahanto stated that if the cease-fire call is effective, Indonesia is prepared to send peacekeepers to Ukraine to ensure order, and Indonesia has expertise in this area. What if Jokowi’s mediation fails, the interviewer questioned again? Hikmahanto stated that Indonesia, as the G20’s rotating chairman, should not be disheartened. Jokowi must urge Biden, Putin, and Zelenskyy to attend the Bali summit and utilize the platform to arbitrate the Russian-Ukrainian issue once more. Indonesia is not without hope.