Thursday, July 25, 2024 | 00:13 WIB

Jakarta’s Political Map Shifts as Regional Elections Approach: Predictable or Puzzling?

Jakarta, IO – While other political parties seem to be speculating about whom to nominate as candidates for the regional election in Jakarta, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) decisively stands behind Anies Rasyid Baswedan and Sohibul Iman to run for Governor and Deputy-governor; their tagline is “AMan” taken from their names Anies and Iman. Circulating news reports that they will soon explore “political communication” with Nasdem and PKB. 

Let’s wait and see – as the first draft – the political coalition map in the last presidential election. In the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM), there were Ridwan Kamil and Kaesang Pangarep. Even though other popular figures were mentioned in the Coalition, none could keep up with that pair. Or that was at least what some observers declared. Meanwhile, other names are still kept in the chest. 

Then, how about the third coalition, which consists of PDIP, PPP, Hanura and Perindo? Well, that is still a mystery – no hints at all. Some senior PDIP politicians suggest that it remains fluid and dynamic. Meanwhile, other political parties in that coalition said nothing; their lips are sealed.

Now, let us take a look at the legislative map (Jakarta DPRD) based on 2024 presidential election results. In the previous term (2019- 2024), PDIP secured 25 seats in the Parliament, but this number then dropped to 15 (2024-2029). Similarly, Gerindra dropped from 19 seats to 14. In contrast, PKS increased from 16 to 18 seats. The Demokrats went from 10 seats down to 8 seats, while PAN picked up one, moving from 9 seats to 10. 

PSI managed to maintain its former number of seats in the Parliament – 8 in total. Nasdem rose from 7 seats to 11 seats. Golkar increased from 6 seats to 10 seats. PKB increased from 5 seats to 10 seats while PPP continues to hold just 1 seat. Perindo, a newcomer to the Jakarta Parliament, got 1 seat. In total, there are 106 seats. 

Andre Vincent Wenas
Andre Vincent Wenas, Observer of political-economic issues

How many seats does a political party or a coalition need to nominate candidates for Governor and Deputy governor? The answer is 22. Since no political party secured 22 seats in the Jakarta DPRD for the 2024-2029 period, they are forced to form a coalition to nominate their candidates. 

As of June 2024, names that have emerged include Anies Baswedan and Sohibul Iman, by PKS and (possibly) Ridwan Kamil by Golkar and Kaesang Pangarep by PSI. PDIP, on the other hand, is still fluid and dynamic, so no names have been definitively released.

Basuki Tjahaja Pur nama (“Ahok”) and Djarot Sjaiful Hidayat, the pair who had a good track in leading Jakarta, were not nominated by their party for the Jakarta regional election for some reason. 

Is it because their party is concerned that Anies will defeat Ahok? In the previous Jakarta regional election, Ahok was imprisoned after being accused of identity politics by Anies supporters. 

Hence, rumor has it that Ahok will be nominated for North Sumatra, going head-to-head with Bobby Nasution. But then, this remains speculation – or in the language of politicians: the situation is still very fluid and dynamic. 

Let’s return to the regional election for Jakarta Special Region, the province that is currently managing a 2024 regional budget of 81.71 trillion Rupiah, after being ratified in Regional Regulation 6/2023. 

So, what will the map look like in June 2024, after PKS declared Anies Baswedan and Sohibul Iman, and possibly Golkar with Ridwan Kamil and PSI with Kaesang Pangarep? Other political parties might join forces with those two axes. 

The Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM) will stay together for the Jakarta regional election, supported by their composition in the 2024- 2029 DPRD: Gerindra (14 seats), Democrat (8 seats), PAN (10 seats), PSI (8 seats) and Golkar (10 seats), a total of 50 seats. This means that they will pass the 22-seat threshold. 

Meanwhile, with a total of 39 seats, PKS (18 seats), Nasdem (11 seats) and PKB (10 seats) can also nominate a candidate pair. 

If PPP (1 seat) and Perindo (also 1 seat) decide to be in league with PDIP (with 15 seats), the total will still fail to meet the 22-seat threshold. 

Read: Empowering Indonesians With A Nutritious Food Program

So, the options for PDIP are to join the two previous axes or to persuade other parties to form a third coalition. 

The question remains: Which political parties want to do it? And who will they nominate? It is evident that they will nominate the candidate pairs showing “electability value”, so they have a winning probability. 

Or if they join either of the two axes, which one will they choose? Whichever they choose, they will have to face the consequences.

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