Indikator Politik Indonesia Poll: Prabowo Subianto’s electability takes lead

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Prabowo Subianto
Gerindra Party Chairman Prabowo Subianto. Photo: Jessica

IO – Based pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia has released its latest survey on electoral dynamics for the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The poll reveals the electability of Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo is almost neck and neck.

Indikator’s Executive Director Burhanuddin Muhtadi said electability was measured by running simulations: from 33 names entered, three dominate, at the top of the list – the same names that came up in the previous survey. “The pattern has not changed. MoD Prabowo (22.4%) is still in first place, then Ganjar (18.0%) and Anies (15.8%). These three names reach 2 digits and above, while others are still in single digits,” said Burhanuddin, in his online presentation, Sunday (1/9/2022).

Another simulation was run by Indikator on 19 figures who could potentially run for presidential office in 2024, reverting with the same results, albeit with a higher percentage. Indikator tries to measure the electability of the three names that persistently perch on top of the list. Their finding shows that most respondents voted for MoD Prabowo Subianto.

“This depicts the electability of presidential candidates from a three name simulation”, he explained, pointing to a graph in his presentation. The result shows that Prabowo Subianto’s electability is 35.4%, narrowly followed by Ganjar Pranowo with 31.6%. Meanwhile, Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan’s electability is still at 24.4%.

Gerindra Party Chairman Prabowo Subianto also takes a commanding lead as the only political party leader most likely to be a presidential candidate in 2024. Burhanuddin said the poll asked which party leaders the respondents would choose as presidential candidates from the nine parties with seats in Parliament. “The highest electability is for Chairman Prabowo (54.4%),” said Burhanuddin.

In second place, Democratic Party Chairman Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) follows with 11.8%. Golkar Party Chairman Airlangga Hartarto has 6.8% electability, followed by the former president and PDIP Chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri with 4.6%. Nasdem Party Chairman Surya Paloh gains 1.6%, and in sixth place is PKB Chairman Muhaimin Iskandar with 1.5%. PKS Chairman acquires 1.3% electability, and both PAN Chairman Zulkifli Hasan and PPP Chairman Suharso Monoarfa’s electability is in the range of zero point something percent.

The poll by Indikator was conducted on Dec. 6-11, 2021, using a multistage random sampling method. There was a total sample of 2,020 respondents with a base sample of 1,220, spread proportionally across 34 provinces and an addition of 800 respondents in East Java. Assuming a simple random sampling method, a base sample size of 1,220 respondents has a margin of error of about 2.9% at a 95% confidence level. (des)