SPIN also gauged the head-to-head electability of the presidential hopefuls. Prabowo is expected to win the presidential race if the contest is only followed by two pairs of candidates. Prabowo is leading when he is faced with Ganjar Pranowo, Anies Baswedan, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), Erick Thohir, Airlangga Hartarto and Muhaimin Iskandar. The table below shows the results:
“All other candidates did not win against Prabowo. Against Ganjar, Anies and AHY, Prabowo’s electability exceeded 50%,” said Igor. “While against Erick, Airlangga and Muhaimin, his electability was even greater, above 60 percent,” he noted.
What if Prabowo was out of the picture? The poll results showed that the electability of Ganjar, Anies and AHY went up, but could not be higher than when Prabowo was part of the equation. “When Prabowo was taken out from the simulation, the number of undecided voters increased. Ganjar competed tightly with Anies, but none of the candidates were able to score above 50%,” he explained.
Igor is of the view that in the 2024 elections, millennial voters will be dominant. Many surveys found that millennials and Generation Zs tend to vote for Prabowo. Generation Zs are 17-year-old first-time voters who account for 28% or around 74 million of eligible voters. Millennials or Generation Ys (24-39 years old) make up around 26% or 70 million voters, while Generation Xs (40-55 years old) and baby boomers are around 22% and 11%, respectively.
“So many surveys show that Jokowi’s voters in 2019 will choose Pak Prabowo in 2024 because they favor or sympathize with Pak Prabowo; coupled with his performance. President Jokowi is also satisfied with Pak Prabowo’s performance as defense minister,” he said.
According to Igor, Prabowo’s strength that other candidates do not have is his ability to solve the political polarization in the society. “Strengthening national cohesion is the most pressing task for Indonesia,” he noted.
To maintain this momentum, according to Igor, Prabowo must declare his decision to join the presidential race and speak more publicly about his achievements as defense minister. “Pak Prabowo must intensify his public communications and when making a declaration, he must choose the right vice-presidential candidate who should be able to represent Jokowi’s voters, because Jokowi has a loyal and strong voter base. Aside from this, he should be young and more importantly able to increase Pak Prabowo’s electability, or at least maintain it, not the other way round,” he concluded. (des, eka)