He believes that the Cold War between the East and the West is gone, but that once the West rules the world, conflicts inside Western countries will emerge. Sure enough, in the next 5 to 10 years, with the strength of the Japanese Yen and the foundation of the European Union as opportunities, a new game was developed with the US, particularly as the trade war between the US and Japan got more serious. There will be a fight for hegemony.
However, this pattern has yet to take shape in actuality. The United States’ “one-power monopoly” has rapidly expanded, while the autonomy of Europe and Japan, particularly Japan, has not increased in proportion, and other developments, such as China and Russia, are taking form. Boris Yeltsin (then President of Russia) stated in the third year (1994) following the release of “Cold Reconciliation” that the relationship between Russia and the West may seem cold peace.
Russia faced a predicament comparable to what it is today, namely NATO’s eastward expansion. The United States reversed its position, and the two sides had a heated argument. Yeltsin used the phrase “cold peace” at the time. He stated that Europe is now facing the possibility of cold peace. Despite the fact that the Cold War is gone, the temperature of peace is too low. This type of cold peace is extremely hazardous, and it may lead to a return to the Cold War. Yeltsin’s views and judgements at the time are vindicated in retrospect.
Recently, the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the pandemic, and other events have been overlaid on the developments of the last century, causing quite substantial turbulence in the world. The current tendency of peaceful growth and collaboration has been influenced. At the time, a friend introduced a notion called “warm war,” which is used to characterize the current status of the globe.
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But, like “hot war” and “cold war,” this idea concentrates on “war” and its main orientation is “war,” which appears to be false (even if the US has frequently highlighted “non-conflict” verbally, Russia and Ukraine fought four wars. For months, the US has been speculatively avoiding). I’ve always felt that the idea of “cold harmony” has a level, in that it recognizes that the most important aspect of the new global pattern is “peace,” which arises not only from observation of reality, but also from logical inference.
However, it has been 30 years since the Cold War ended. The notion of 100-year transformation has recently gained popularity. Although I believe it is in a state of “transition,” it may be difficult to reach a conclusion such as “cold peace.” There is a sense of immaturity, including the aforementioned “two camps” or “three worlds.” In this scenario, it may be more beneficial to absorb some of the most recent global changes from the difficult alterations.