Thursday, March 28, 2024 | 23:21 WIB

How It Ends in Ukraine

James Van Zorge
James Van Zorge, is a Business consultant in Indonesia that has worked for the Harvard Institute for International Development, Food and Agriculture Organization, McKinsey & Co., and A.T.Kearney’s Global Business Policy Institute. He completed his BA in International Relations, summacum laude, at the State University of New York at Albany, and he holds a Masters of Public Policy, International Economics, from the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

Given these setbacks, it is hard to imagine Putin still harbors ambitions to control the entirety of Ukraine. The fact that Russia has dropped its demands for regime change suggests Putin is no longer under false illusions, and his ordering the Russian military to regroup and entirely focus on wrestling control over Crimea and Donbas could prove to be a prelude for Putin signaling the time is coming near for both sides coming together to strike a peace accord. 

Another factor that will likely lull Putin into brokering for peace in the near future is the weight of sanctions. For the time being, Putin’s propaganda machine on the war can help maintain his popularity with the Russians, but one must question whether or not they will be willing to endure the economic pains of sanctions for a sustained period before demanding an end to the war. 

Much can be said about Russia’s oligarchs–there must be a limit to how much they are willing to have the war cost them in lost business opportunities. Putin must know this, as well. 

For the coming weeks the central question is how the Russian onslaught in eastern Ukraine will unfold. Should it become a bloody and protracted battle with no certain outcomes and both sides digging in, Putin will have little incentive to move towards a peace settlement. 

Putin has repeatedly made it clear, after all, that he wants Ukraine to recognize the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as well as acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory as part of a settlement to end the war. But if Putin can›t gain control over those territories, he will have little leverage with the Ukranians to acquiesce. 

Putin cannot order his troops to withdraw unless he has something to show for all the blood and treasure spent. But he can’t afford either to have the Russian body count to keep rising. Putin must know by now that his initial ambitions for Ukraine were out of sync with the realities. As the war drags on, he will discover he will be under increasing pressure to put an end to this senseless war.

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