For certain, risks will still be high, like continuing disruptions in supply chains, resulting in higher transportation costs, followed by inflationary pressure. Also, the reduction in gas flow, resulting from the war, would endanger fertilizer production, later the source of problems in our rice and other food production; this must be solved via other means to assure the national supply of food. Thus, there is much homework that the government must work hard on lest we are too late, thus encountering even bigger problems. While feeling grateful for the arrival of the end of Covid-19, let us also hope that recession will not touch our economy.
Read: The Malang Tragedy, And What It Reveals About Indonesia
From all information available, it is clear that: One, the cost of borrowing is higher due to increases in bank interest rates, and Two, a stronger American currency will make cost of borrowing in USD more expensive. We do not need any economic and banking knowledge to appreciate this. Then, even borrowing in Rupiah domestically would follow this trend in no time. Costs for doing business would rise, and this would lead to decreased production and a subsequent further slowdown in business. Easier said than done, but the government must do its utmost to avoid that happening, or must limit its duration. One last issue I have mentioned many times is that the government must really address the problem of the low tax ratio that has been with us for quite some time. A serious effort must be attempted to follow up the tax amnesty of a few years back with some determination for taxpayers to really pay their due.