Lesson from Sri Lanka
Food and fuel prices skyrocketed uncontrollably as Sri Lanka is roiled by economic and political crisis. The Covid-19 pandemic has hit it hard. A developing country with a per capita income of US$3.852, more or less the same with Indonesia’s US$3.867 is facing its worst crisis since it gained independence from Britain in 1948.
Covid-19 that started out as a health crisis quickly morphed into an economic-social crisis and now a full-blown political crisis. The South Asian island nation is facing severe shortages of food, fuel and other basic necessities compounded by record inflation and long power cuts.
The Sri Lankan government has declared state of emergency, placing the country under curfew as its angry public have taken to the streets to protest rising food and fuel costs.
People who could barely survive under the government of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa finally took to the streets. The opposition and the public held mass demonstrations in recent weeks to demand the president to improve the situation.
Feeling the heat, Gotabaya Rajapaksa has turned to blocking access to social media. He clearly thinks that if all social media access is restricted, the protest will die down. Big mistake, as it only inflames the situation. Waves of protest only grew bigger.
Sensing people’s anger, Sri Lankan cabinet ministers, except the president and his sibling prime minister, resigned en masse on Sunday, April 3, 2022. The incumbent president and prime minister have failed to resolve the escalating economic crisis.
What happened in Sri Lanka could also happen in Indonesia, if the Indonesian government failed to address the post-Covid economic problems and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The Sri Lankan government appears to have lost its legitimacy because it has failed to deal with the economic crisis. Meanwhile, the Indonesian government is also not necessarily competent in tackling the crisis.
While Sri Lanka does not have the issue in presidential term limits, the way the country was mismanaged which in turn caused severe economic problems, has pushed the country to the brink.
Indonesia currently looks utterly incompetent in solving its economic woes, plus there are certain quarters who dream of the return of authoritarianism by using the presidential term extension discourse. This will be much more severe than what is happening in Sri Lanka, where political crisis brews with an economic one to create a perfect storm. Hopefully it won’t come to that.
Recommendation
President Jokowi needs to give strict orders to his aides and supporters to stop the discourse on three-term presidency and focus on handling Covid-19. People are yearning for economic recovery and it is difficult for them to digest the discourse while they are distraught by the pandemic and are struggling financially.
We must admit that the Covid-19 handling in 2020 than 2021 and 2022 where there are too many inconsistent government narratives on economic recovery including value-added tax (VAT), administrative capital relocation and three-term presidency which are actually counterproductive to the health and economic recovery efforts.
The three-term presidency issue, in particular, can potentially divide the Indonesian society which should be avoided if the government is serious and consistent with accelerating the economic recovery.
The inconsistency of the government’s narrative on economic recovery shows the President’s weak statesmanship. He has put his personal ego for power above the economic recovery.
If the government continues to do this kind of maneuver, it will distract its focus from various critical issues that should be at the top of the priority scale to be resolved. President Jokowi is consciously following the ambitions of those who seem determined to remain in power for much longer. Ordinary people can see that this discourse is devised to fulfill the ambition of a handful of oligarchs inside and outside the administration.
Various undertakings that show the government’s incompetence should be used as a momentum to improve its performance toward the end of the second term. People are facing hardship due to the chaotic state of the economy exacerbated by rising food and fuel prices. The government should do more to address the problems and alleviate people’s suffering.
President Jokowi’s aides and confidants should stop their three-term presidency maneuver because not is it against the Constitution, it will also distract the president from discharging his duties and responsibilities.
The president should be firm in stopping the efforts of his subordinates because it could send him astray. He can be dragged into violating the Constitution which will be detrimental to his position. Moreover, many people have voiced their opposition to the idea. If this continues, it may lead to Jokowi’s impeachment or even spark people power movement which leads to political and national leadership crisis as what happened in May 1998. We should be terrified at this prospect.