Inviting Ukraine as an observer to the G20 Summit
An alternative option is to invite Ukraine to the Summit, as suggested by President Biden. In fact, many countries attend as observers of the G20 Summit, in view of the importance of this forum: they too would like to become part of the forum. However, inviting Ukraine to be an observer to ensure participation of the US and its allies in the Summit may not be enough. The Summit also must accommodate issues related to Russian aggression in Ukraine, to be tabled. Considerations beyond financial and economy ones in the G20 Summit are not something new. In the past, after the 9/11 terrorist attack in New York, the US also raised the issue of war on terror in the G20 Summit. However, Russia— for sure—will not agree to this idea, let alone if issues related to what is happening in Ukraine are to be discussed. Large countries like China and India might support the Russian position. Thus, this idea also is difficult to adopt and if it is adopted, then the G20 Summit will end up with the absence of some important member countries. This is also something that Indonesia had not expected.
Extension of Indonesia’s Presidency in G20
The above-mentioned options are not realistic, and if they are to be implemented, it will only result in imperfect outcomes for the G20 Summit. Thus, there must be another option on how to ensure the Indonesian Presidency and the existence of G20 itself. The alternative worth considering is to postpone the G20 Summit for this year and to extend Indonesia’s Presidency in the organization. Considering that the Summit as currently planned will not be effective, and the outcome will be sub-optimal, it would be better to postpone the G20 Summit this year and move the event to 2023, with the hope the war in Ukraine will end by that time. This idea could gather support from members of G20, as they see that organizing a “business as usual” event this year in the midst of a war in Ukraine would create conflicts between member of G20 countries. At the same time, Indonesia would seek a consensus from G20 member countries to extend its presidency to 2023. The extension would also save Indonesia’s position as President of G20 this year.
Which option to choose will depend on the development and outcome of the war in Ukraine. However, Indonesia—in due time—must decide independently, after consultation with the G20 members which option to choose. In the meantime, Indonesia should fully utilize its diplomatic capacity as President of G20 to actively find a solution to the war in Ukraine, one that can be accepted by all parties, thus ensuring a better environment for the G20 Summit in Indonesia. One final note: an extension of the Indonesian Presidency of G20—unlike an extension of Indonesia’s presidential term—would encounter wide support domestically and from abroad. (Muhammad Fadhil Hasan)