Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, there was already a dilemma facing Indonesia in preparing the G-20 Summit. If Russia were to be allowed to attend, the US and its allies might rebel; however, a rebuff of Russia would violate the protocol of the G-20 itself. So, Indonesia still has the duty to invite the Russian Federation and President Putin signaled that he will attend the Summit. President Biden—knowing this—expressed Russia should be expelled from the G20. However, he continued to state that if Indonesia didn’t agree with an expulsion, then the Ukraine should also be invited to the Summit, an option Indonesia might consider. President Biden’s expression was echoed by Australian Prime Minister Abbot, who stated that inviting Russia would be a step too far.
However, with the new developments of the conflict as mentioned above, the prospect of a successful G20 Summit will be even more difficult to achieve. Already, US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen has declared that the US will not participate in a number of meetings if the Russians are present, referring to a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in April in Washington. This stance may be followed by other G20 members. Thus, what are the options for Indonesia if it intends to save the G20 Summit? The following are scenarios available to be considered: first, continue with the initial plan and stick with rules and protocol of the G20; second, invite Ukraine to be an observer and accommodate issues of the conflict to be tabled in the Summit; third, postpone the summit and extend Indonesia’s Presidency to 2023.
Continue with the initial plan
Despite the pressure being brought to bear by the US and its allies, Indonesia is determined to remain impartial, with respect to the organization of the G20 Summit, by inviting all members. The reason for doing this is to respect the rules and protocol of the G20 itself; besides, the G20 is a forum for economic cooperation among the world’s major economies, not a political forum. Thus, it cannot intervene in other matters beyond the economy. However, Indonesia cannot be naïve about this, as if economic cooperation can be separated from political matters. How then can economic cooperation be carried out in the midst of conflict between members of G20, in a manner that generates worldwide economic and political problems? It cannot be “business as usual” for all concerned parties, witnessing the atrocities of the war while discussing economic cooperation and maintaining world economic growth. Thus, if Indonesia sticks with the original plan of inviting all members of the G20, there could be a consequence of certain members of the G20 declining to participate in the Summit. The US and its allies might boycott the Summit. With the absence of several member countries, it is certain that the outcome of the Summit will be sub-optimal, if not simply in vain. Of course, as the host and holder of the presidency of G20, Indonesia does not want to see this happen. Thus, this is clearly not the best scenario to be adopted.