Wednesday, July 24, 2024 | 00:52 WIB

A third win for Prime Minister Modi, but…

Jakarta, IO – The long General Election in India, which ran from April to June 1, just wound up, with the clear winner being incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the third time since 2014. Nevertheless, his win was not followed by maintaining a majority in the lower house, the Lok Sabha. His Party the Bharata Janata Party (BJP) was linked in a in coalition with a small Party, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), while the other alliance now in power in the Congress in the INDIA (Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance). And with this, the saying that Narendra Modi is no longer invincible in Indian politics. 

Some state that with his popularity, as shown in repeated national polls during the campaign period, PM Modi became so confident that he miscalculated the anti-incumbent feelings that became rampant, and the economic hardships with high unemployment turned out to be costly for him. Yet, with additional challenges expectations remained high that the Prime Minister will continue with his economic programs and reform in his administration. But now, his effort to bring this biggest country globally in terms of population size with GDP per capita of USD 2.4000 certainly become more challenging. Of course, PM Modi must continue his effort to have high stature among the BRICS countries as well as in the G-20 which will have its Summit in Brazil sometime in November. During this Summit the new Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto will function for the first time, addressing this important gathering of world leaders, representing ASEAN countries, which I am sure will attract the other world leaders’ attention as I am sure he is capable of doing so.

J. Soedradjad Djiwandono
J. Soedradjad Djiwandono. Emeritus Professor of Economics, FEBUI, Jakarta, and Adjunct Professor of International Economics, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

In any case, the democratic process in India, which was exercised well very recently is good news that we all should celebrate, while at the same time in other area we still observe continuing war which kept causing human and material casualties, Ukraine with Russian invasion, and Middle East with Israel IDF continuing attacks on Rafah and other areas in Gaza. We must wait for the new initiative to create cease fire and peace that still a big question mark regarding its effectiveness on the Middle East, while regarding Ukraine we had not been learning about the most recent development. The new peace initiative, which was originated and strongly supported by President Biden seemed still in uncertain state, as within Israel Government it seemed vied differently by Prime Minister Netanyahu, those of the extreme right definitely took the stand of against the proposal which required stopping the attacks immediately first then negotiate, and that this would not help them achieving the objective of destroying Hamas completely, while those on the left looked sympathetic to the proposal and hoping the immediate release of Israelis still in hostage by the Hamas. Meanwhile PM Netanyahu must be feeling elated be invited of addressing a joined session of the US House of Representatives with the Senate. What does this mean politically is hard to see. But surely he had became more and more isolated facing increasing criticism from more country, and condemned by the UN Security Council for the attacks that more and more resemblance to genocide against the Palestinians. As we recall all these are on top of the decision by both the ICC order to arrest PM Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant as well as leaders of the Hamas attack on October 7, Ismael Haniyeh and Mohammad Dief, and still the threat from court proceeding with the International Tribunal in The Hague from submission by President Ceril Ramaphosa of South Africa, which Indonesia had supported. 

Read: Revision Of Laws, The Spirit Of Reform And The Future Of Indonesian Democracy

And what about President Putin? Surely, he is enjoying his unprecedented third term in Kremlin and at least up to now received support from China financially as this country maintained its purchase of oil and gas from Russia that keep Moscow’s coffer filled with source of funds that Russia needed. But whether he could achieve his dream of occupying Ukraine as he did Crimea is certainly not clear as yet. With continuing supports from the US and its Western Allies Ukraine must feel more able to defend the country from being taken by Russia. And with EU that kept its effort to strengthen its position, NATO should also get stronger including its ability to support Ukraine. So, the equation is still fluid that may even be leaning more toward Ukraine advantage, which, further implies that President Putin would be even more difficult to become a reality. That is the way my two cents brain argue.